ASSET PREFERENCE IN TIMES OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: TRANSITION BEHAVIOR BETWEEN GOLD AND HOUSING IN TURKEY

Metin Duyar

Article Details

ASSET PREFERENCE IN TIMES OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: TRANSITION BEHAVIOR BETWEEN GOLD AND HOUSING IN TURKEY

Authors:

Metin Duyar

Publisher:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Main Topics:

Mikro İktisat (Diğer)

Journal:

Biga İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.6 Issue 2, pp.167-177

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001357813

pISSN:

2757-573X

Keywords:

Abstract:

 This study investigates the dynamic relationship between gold imports and housing prices in Turkey by employing a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression TVP VAR model using monthly data from January 2012 to June 2025. The primary objective is to analyze whether individual investors switch between gold and real estate in response to macroeconomic uncertainties such as exchange rate shocks, inflationary pressures, and policy interventions. Empirical findings reveal that the interaction between gold and housing prices is not stable over time. During periods of financial stress, such as the 2018 currency crisis and the 2023 gold import quota implementation, investors tend to shift their preferences between these two asset classes. While a substitution pattern is observed in some yearsespecially when access to one asset is constrainedother periods show a concurrent increase in demand for both assets, indicating a dual-channel hedging behavior against inflation and financial volatility. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses further demonstrate that gold import shocks explain up to 22 of the variation in housing prices over a one-year horizon. These results suggest that asset-switching behavior plays a crucial role in shaping market dynamics in Turkeys highly reactive investment environment. The study contributes to the literature by providing the first empirical evidence of temporal asset-switching between gold and housing, and offers insights for policymakers aiming to balance macroeconomic stability with investor behavior.

 This study investigates the dynamic relationship between gold imports and housing prices in Turkey by employing a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression TVP VAR model using monthly data from January 2012 to June 2025. The primary objective is to analyze whether individual investors switch between gold and real estate in response to macroeconomic uncertainties such as exchange rate shocks, inflationary pressures, and policy interventions. Empirical findings reveal that the interaction between gold and housing prices is not stable over time. During periods of financial stress, such as the 2018 currency crisis and the 2023 gold import quota implementation, investors tend to shift their preferences between these two asset classes. While a substitution pattern is observed in some yearsespecially when access to one asset is constrainedother periods show a concurrent increase in demand for both assets, indicating a dual-channel hedging behavior against inflation and financial volatility. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses further demonstrate that gold import shocks explain up to 22 of the variation in housing prices over a one-year horizon. These results suggest that asset-switching behavior plays a crucial role in shaping market dynamics in Turkeys highly reactive investment environment. The study contributes to the literature by providing the first empirical evidence of temporal asset-switching between gold and housing, and offers insights for policymakers aiming to balance macroeconomic stability with investor behavior.

 This study investigates the dynamic relationship between gold imports and housing prices in Turkey by employing a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression TVP VAR model using monthly data from January 2012 to June 2025. The primary objective is to analyze whether individual investors switch between gold and real estate in response to macroeconomic uncertainties such as exchange rate shocks, inflationary pressures, and policy interventions. Empirical findings reveal that the interaction between gold and housing prices is not stable over time. During periods of financial stress, such as the 2018 currency crisis and the 2023 gold import quota implementation, investors tend to shift their preferences between these two asset classes. While a substitution pattern is observed in some yearsespecially when access to one asset is constrainedother periods show a concurrent increase in demand for both assets, indicating a dual-channel hedging behavior against inflation and financial volatility. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses further demonstrate that gold import shocks explain up to 22 of the variation in housing prices over a one-year horizon. These results suggest that asset-switching behavior plays a crucial role in shaping market dynamics in Turkeys highly reactive investment environment. The study contributes to the literature by providing the first empirical evidence of temporal asset-switching between gold and housing, and offers insights for policymakers aiming to balance macroeconomic stability with investor behavior.

 Bu çalışma, Türkiyede altın ithalatı ile konut fiyatları arasındaki ilişkiyi 20122025 dönemi aylık verileri kullanarak incelemekte ve yatırımcıların makroekonomik belirsizlik dönemlerinde bu iki varlık arasında geçiş davranışı sergileyip sergilemediğini analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada Zamanla Değişen Parametreli Vektör Otoregresif Model TVP VAR uygulanarak, ilişkilerin zaman içinde sabit kalmadığı, dönemsel olarak farklı yön ve yoğunlukta seyrettiği ortaya konmuştur. Ampirik bulgular, 2018 döviz krizi ve 2023 yılı altın ithalat kotası gibi dönemlerde yatırımcıların konuttan altına veya altından konuta geçiş yaptığını göstermektedir. Bazı yıllarda ikame ilişkisi hâkimken, özellikle yüksek enflasyon dönemlerinde altın ve konutun eşzamanlı talep gördüğü, çift yönlü güvenlik davranışı örüntüsüne rastlanmıştır. İleri düzey zaman serisi analizleri impulse response ve varyans ayrıştırması, konut fiyatlarındaki oynaklığın 22sinin altın ithalatı şoklarıyla açıklanabileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Bu yönüyle çalışma, Türkiyede daha önce ampirik olarak test edilmemiş bir varlık geçiş davranışını ölçmekte ve yatırım tercihlerinin zamanla evrilen yapısını modellemektedir. Bulgular, politika yapıcılar açısından da önemli sinyaller içermektedir; özellikle yatırım alternatiflerine yönelik kısıtlamaların, konut piyasası gibi sosyal etkileri güçlü sektörlerde yan etkilere yol açabileceği vurgulanmaktadır.

Article Details

ASSET PREFERENCE IN TIMES OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: TRANSITION BEHAVIOR BETWEEN GOLD AND HOUSING IN TURKEY

Authors:

Metin Duyar

Publisher:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Main Topics:

Mikro İktisat (Diğer)

Journal:

Biga İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.6 Issue 2, pp.167-177

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001357813

pISSN:

2757-573X

Gold imports

Housing market

Asset switching behavior

TVP VAR

Macroeconomic uncertainty

Turkey

Dynamic modeling

Inflation hedgeAltın ithalatı

konut piyasası

varlık geçiş davranışı

TVP VAR

makroekonomik belirsizlik

zaman serisi analizi

yatırım tercihi

enflasyon

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Metin Duyar

Publisher: Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Main Topics: Mikro İktisat (Diğer)

Journal: Biga İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.6 Issue 2, pp.167-177

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 9/2025

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001357813

pISSN: 2757-573X

Issues

Authors:

Metin Duyar

Publisher:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Main Topics:

Mikro İktisat (Diğer)

Journal:

Biga İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.6 Issue 2, pp.167-177

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001357813

pISSN:

2757-573X