An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Özgür ÖZDAMAR

doi:https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476858

Article Details

An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Authors:

Özgür ÖZDAMAR

Publisher:

Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation

Main Topics:

Sociology and anthropology

Journal:

All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 2019 Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.205-230

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2019

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2000664401

Frequency:

Bi-Annual

eISSN:

2757-9026

pISSN:

2146-7757

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476858

Abstract:

 


This article provides an introduction to the theoretical underpinnings
of expected utility and game theory approaches in IR studies. It goes on to
explore their application to a specific research subject, international
bargaining on Iran’s nuclear program. In this application, the article presents
forecasts about Iran’s nuclear program using a game theoretic, bounded
rationality model called the expected utility model (Bueno de Mesquita 2002). Three
analyses were made in December 2005, September 2006 and March 2007. All three
forecasts appear to be in line with real-life developments regarding the issue.
The results show that Iran has been losing international support since the
analyses started, and the last forecast suggests a pro-US position supported by
all major international actors. Also, all three analyses suggest that Russian
and Chinese support is vital to curb the Iranian nuclear program. 


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Article Details

An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Authors: Özgür ÖZDAMAR

Publisher: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation

Main Topics: Sociology and anthropology

Journal: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 2019 Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.205-230

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 6/2019

Document Language: English

Document ID (Org No.): 2000664401

Frequency: Bi-Annual

eISSN: 2757-9026

pISSN: 2146-7757

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476858

Issues

Authors:

Özgür ÖZDAMAR

Publisher:

Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation

Main Topics:

Sociology and anthropology

Journal:

All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 2019 Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.205-230

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2019

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2000664401

Frequency:

Bi-Annual

eISSN:

2757-9026

pISSN:

2146-7757

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476858