The Ecopolitics of the Southeast European Region’s Natural Gas Market After the Ukraine-Russia War

Göktuğ Şahin; Mehmet Karan

Article Details

The Ecopolitics of the Southeast European Region’s Natural Gas Market After the Ukraine-Russia War

Authors:

Göktuğ Şahin | Mehmet Karan

Publisher:

Bingol University

Main Topics:

Ekonomi

Journal:

Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.7 Issue Prof. Dr. Muammer ERDOĞAN Anısına Kongre Özel Sayısı, pp.93-119

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

3/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001286917

pISSN:

2651-3234

Keywords:

Abstract:

 The aim of this study is to examine the natural gas market in the Southeast region of Europe, including the Balkan countries, from an ecopolitical perspective within the framework of the developments that emerged with the European Unions restriction of natural gas purchases from Russia due to the Ukraine-Russia war. In the study, natural gas resources, imports, and natural gas consumption of eight countries, including Türkiye, were examined economically, and the potential natural gas consumption of these countries was estimated by benefiting the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes MIMIC model. According to the findings, annually, the observed consumption of the region is 111.5 Bcm, while the implied consumption is 216.9 Bcm. On the other hand, considering a scenario in which natural gas is not purchased from Russia; it is not possible to meet the natural gas needs of the Southeast European region with existing investments and opportunities, and it has been observed that the amount of natural gas that can be supplied by the regions LNG facilities and existing pipelines is not sufficient on its own. In addition, the amount of gas that Greece, which aims to become the energy hub of the region, can provide with its LNG facilities and existing pipelines is not sufficient. For these reasons, it has been determined that while Russia continues to be a strong player in the natural gas market in the Southeast European region, the importance of Türkiyes energy hub potential is gradually increasing in the current conjuncture.

 The aim of this study is to examine the natural gas market in the Southeast region of Europe, including the Balkan countries, from an ecopolitical perspective within the framework of the developments that emerged with the European Unions restriction of natural gas purchases from Russia due to the Ukraine-Russia war. In the study, natural gas resources, imports, and natural gas consumption of eight countries, including Türkiye, were examined economically, and the potential natural gas consumption of these countries was estimated by benefiting the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes MIMIC model. According to the findings, annually, the observed consumption of the region is 111.5 Bcm, while the implied consumption is 216.9 Bcm. On the other hand, considering a scenario in which natural gas is not purchased from Russia; it is not possible to meet the natural gas needs of the Southeast European region with existing investments and opportunities, and it has been observed that the amount of natural gas that can be supplied by the regions LNG facilities and existing pipelines is not sufficient on its own. In addition, the amount of gas that Greece, which aims to become the energy hub of the region, can provide with its LNG facilities and existing pipelines is not sufficient. For these reasons, it has been determined that while Russia continues to be a strong player in the natural gas market in the Southeast European region, the importance of Türkiyes energy hub potential is gradually increasing in the current conjuncture.

 The aim of this study is to examine the natural gas market in the Southeast region of Europe, including the Balkan countries, from an ecopolitical perspective within the framework of the developments that emerged with the European Unions restriction of natural gas purchases from Russia due to the Ukraine-Russia war. In the study, natural gas resources, imports, and natural gas consumption of eight countries, including Türkiye, were examined economically, and the potential natural gas consumption of these countries was estimated by benefiting the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes MIMIC model. According to the findings, annually, the observed consumption of the region is 111.5 Bcm, while the implied consumption is 216.9 Bcm. On the other hand, considering a scenario in which natural gas is not purchased from Russia; it is not possible to meet the natural gas needs of the Southeast European region with existing investments and opportunities, and it has been observed that the amount of natural gas that can be supplied by the regions LNG facilities and existing pipelines is not sufficient on its own. In addition, the amount of gas that Greece, which aims to become the energy hub of the region, can provide with its LNG facilities and existing pipelines is not sufficient. For these reasons, it has been determined that while Russia continues to be a strong player in the natural gas market in the Southeast European region, the importance of Türkiyes energy hub potential is gradually increasing in the current conjuncture.

 Bu çalışmanın amacı Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı nedeniyle Avrupa Birliğinin Rusyadan doğal gaz alımını kısıtlaması ile ortaya çıkan gelişmeler çerçevesinde, Balkan ülkelerini de kapsayan Avrupanın Güneydoğu bölgesindeki doğal gaz piyasasının ekopolitik açıdan incelenmesidir. Çalışmada Türkiyenin de aralarında olduğu sekiz ülkenin doğal gaz kaynakları, ithalatları ve doğal gaz projeleriyle birlikte doğal gaz tüketimleri ekonomik açıdan incelenmiş ve Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes MIMIC modelinden faydalanılarak bu ülkelerin potansiyel doğal gaz tüketimleri tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre yıllık olarak bölgenin gözlenen tüketimi 111,5 Bcm iken ima edilen tüketimi 216,9 Bcmdir. Diğer taraftan Rusyadan doğal gaz satın alınmadığı bir senaryo göz önüne alındığında, Güneydoğu Avrupa bölgesinin doğal gaz ihtiyacının mevcut yatırım ve imkânlarla karşılanmasının mümkün olmadığı; bölgenin LNG tesisleri ve mevcut boru hatları ile temin edilebilecek doğal gaz miktarının kendi başına yeterli olmadığı gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca, bölgenin enerji merkezi olma hedefi olan Yunanistanın LNG tesisleri ve mevcut boru hatları ile sağlayabileceği gaz miktarı da yeterli değildir. Bu nedenlerle Rusya, Güneydoğu Avrupa bölgesi doğal gaz pazarında güçlü bir oyuncu olmaya devam ederken, mevcut konjonktürde Türkiyenin enerji merkezi olma potansiyelinin giderek arttığı söylenebilir.

Article Details

The Ecopolitics of the Southeast European Region’s Natural Gas Market After the Ukraine-Russia War

Authors:

Göktuğ Şahin | Mehmet Karan

Publisher:

Bingol University

Main Topics:

Ekonomi

Journal:

Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.7 Issue Prof. Dr. Muammer ERDOĞAN Anısına Kongre Özel Sayısı, pp.93-119

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

3/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001286917

pISSN:

2651-3234

Energy economics

energy markets

energy consumption

natural gas pipelines

estimation models

Enerji ekonomisi

enerji piyasaları

enerji tüketimi

doğal gaz boru hatları

tahmin modelleri

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Göktuğ Şahin | Mehmet Karan

Publisher: Bingol University

Main Topics: Ekonomi

Journal: Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.7 Issue Prof. Dr. Muammer ERDOĞAN Anısına Kongre Özel Sayısı, pp.93-119

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 3/2023

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001286917

pISSN: 2651-3234

Issues

Authors:

Göktuğ Şahin | Mehmet Karan

Publisher:

Bingol University

Main Topics:

Ekonomi

Journal:

Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.7 Issue Prof. Dr. Muammer ERDOĞAN Anısına Kongre Özel Sayısı, pp.93-119

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

3/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001286917

pISSN:

2651-3234