Examining Foreign Terms Of Trade And Reel Foreign Currency Relation In Turkey Through Cointegration And Causality Test

Şeyma  ÇALIŞKAN ÇAVDAR

Article Details

Examining Foreign Terms Of Trade And Reel Foreign Currency Relation In Turkey Through Cointegration And Causality Test

Authors:

Şeyma ÇALIŞKAN ÇAVDAR

Publisher:

Cevdet Emin EKİNCİ

Journal:

Social Sciences 2011 Vol.6 Issue 4, pp.455-463

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2011

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2000833109

Frequency:

Quarterly

eISSN:

1308-7444

Keywords:

Abstract:

 

Bu çaly?mada, Türkiye'de reel döviz kuru ve dy? ticaret haddi ili?kisi ekonometrik zaman serileri metodolojisi ba?lamynda belirlenmeye çaly?ylmy?tyr. 1987:1-2009:4 dönemini kapsayan bir veri seti kullanylarak koentegrasyon için ön ?art olan de?i?kenlerin dura?anly?y tespit edilmi? ve I(1) olduklary görülmü?tür. Yapylan Johansen-Juselius koentegrasyon testi sonucunda de?i?kenler arasynda uzun dönemli ili?kinin varly?y belirlenmi?tir. Granger nedensellik testi ile dy? ticaret hadlerinden reel döviz kuruna do?ru bir nedensellik bulunmu?tur. Yki de?i?ken arasyndaki söz konusu ili?ki, ülkede dy? ticaret hadlerinde bir iyile?menin ülkeye gelir getirici etki yapaca?yndan, yurt içi fiyatlaryn yurt dy?y fiyat seviyesine göre yükselmeye neden oldu?unu göstermektedir.

 

In this work, the relationship between reel foreign currency and foreign terms of trade in Turkey was tried to be determined in the context of econometric time series methodology. By using a dataset covering 1987:1-2009:4 period, the stagnation of the variables that are the precondition for co integration was ascertained and it was seen that they were I(1). As a result of the Johansen-Juselius co integration test conducted, existence of a long-term relationship between the variables was determined. Through the Granger causality test, causality from the foreign terms of trade toward reel foreign currency was found. The said relationship between the two variables demonstrates that the domestic prices caused increase compared to foreign price levels since an improvement in the foreign terms of trade in the country will render an income-providing effect.

Article Details

Examining Foreign Terms Of Trade And Reel Foreign Currency Relation In Turkey Through Cointegration And Causality Test

Authors:

Şeyma ÇALIŞKAN ÇAVDAR

Publisher:

Cevdet Emin EKİNCİ

Journal:

Social Sciences 2011 Vol.6 Issue 4, pp.455-463

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2011

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2000833109

Frequency:

Quarterly

eISSN:

1308-7444

Granger Casuality

Terms of Trade

Index of Export Prices

Real Exchange Rate

Cointegration Analysis

Issues

Article Details

Examining Foreign Terms Of Trade And Reel Foreign Currency Relation In Turkey Through Cointegration And Causality Test

Authors: Şeyma ÇALIŞKAN ÇAVDAR

Publisher: Cevdet Emin EKİNCİ

Journal: Social Sciences 2011 Vol.6 Issue 4, pp.455-463

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 4/2011

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2000833109

Frequency: Quarterly

eISSN: 1308-7444

Granger Casuality

Terms of Trade

Index of Export Prices

Real Exchange Rate

Cointegration Analysis

Issues

Authors:

Şeyma ÇALIŞKAN ÇAVDAR

Publisher:

Cevdet Emin EKİNCİ

Journal:

Social Sciences 2011 Vol.6 Issue 4, pp.455-463

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2011

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2000833109

Frequency:

Quarterly

eISSN:

1308-7444