Test of Quadruplet Deficit Hypothesis in Turkey and PIIGS Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Burcu Gediz Oral; Tuğba Arpazlı Fazlılar

Article Details

Test of Quadruplet Deficit Hypothesis in Turkey and PIIGS Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Authors:

Burcu Gediz Oral | Tuğba Arpazlı Fazlılar

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Uluslararası Finans

Journal:

Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.21 Issue 4, pp.25-42

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

12/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001307067

pISSN:

1304-4796

Keywords:

Abstract:

 The concept of quadruplet deficit refers to the concepts of twin deficit, triple deficit and output gap. However, studies that include the output gap, especially with the effect of savings and budget deficits, have recently started to be the subject of analysis. The aim of this study, the quadruplet deficit hypothesis is tested with the 1986-2021 data for Turkey and PIIGS countries. A cointegration analysis was performed for the variables between the relevant years. Then, the long- and short-term coefficients were obtained by analyzing three different estimators Pooled Mean Group estimator PMG, Mean Group estimator MG and Dynamic Fixed Effect estimator DFE based on pooled and fixed effects. The results show that the quadruplet deficit is not valid for Turkey and PIIGS countries, and the main variable affecting the current account deficit is the savings gap. However, according to the findings, the output gap is among the determinants of the current account deficit in addition to the savings gap in the long run for Portugal and Ireland and in the short run for Spain.

 The concept of quadruplet deficit refers to the concepts of twin deficit, triple deficit and output gap. However, studies that include the output gap, especially with the effect of savings and budget deficits, have recently started to be the subject of analysis. The aim of this study, the quadruplet deficit hypothesis is tested with the 1986-2021 data for Turkey and PIIGS countries. A cointegration analysis was performed for the variables between the relevant years. Then, the long- and short-term coefficients were obtained by analyzing three different estimators Pooled Mean Group estimator PMG, Mean Group estimator MG and Dynamic Fixed Effect estimator DFE based on pooled and fixed effects. The results show that the quadruplet deficit is not valid for Turkey and PIIGS countries, and the main variable affecting the current account deficit is the savings gap. However, according to the findings, the output gap is among the determinants of the current account deficit in addition to the savings gap in the long run for Portugal and Ireland and in the short run for Spain.

 The concept of quadruplet deficit refers to the concepts of twin deficit, triple deficit and output gap. However, studies that include the output gap, especially with the effect of savings and budget deficits, have recently started to be the subject of analysis. The aim of this study, the quadruplet deficit hypothesis is tested with the 1986-2021 data for Turkey and PIIGS countries. A cointegration analysis was performed for the variables between the relevant years. Then, the long- and short-term coefficients were obtained by analyzing three different estimators Pooled Mean Group estimator PMG, Mean Group estimator MG and Dynamic Fixed Effect estimator DFE based on pooled and fixed effects. The results show that the quadruplet deficit is not valid for Turkey and PIIGS countries, and the main variable affecting the current account deficit is the savings gap. However, according to the findings, the output gap is among the determinants of the current account deficit in addition to the savings gap in the long run for Portugal and Ireland and in the short run for Spain.

 Dördüz açık kavramı ikiz açık, üçüz açık ve çıktı açığı kavramlarının bir arada ele alınmasını ifade etmektedir. Ancak özellikle tasarruf ve bütçe açıklarının etkisiyle birlikte çıktı açığını da konuya dahil eden çalışmalar yeni yeni analizlerin konusu olmaya başlamıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye ve PIIGS ülkeleri için 1986-2021 verileri ile dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliğini test etmektir. İlgili yıllar aralığında seçilen değişkenler için eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmıştır. Ardından havuzlanmış ve sabit etkilere dayalı üç ayrı tahminci ile Pooled Mean Group estimator PMG, Mean Group estimator MG ve Dynamic Fixed Effect estimator DFE analiz yapılarak uzun ve kısa dönemli katsayılara ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye ve PIIGS ülkeleri için dördüz açığın geçerli olmadığını, cari açık üzerinde etkili olan temel değişkenin tasarruf açığı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, elde edilen bulgulara göre Portekiz ve İrlanda için uzun dönemde, İspanya için kısa dönemde tasarruf açığına ek olarak çıktı açığı da cari açığın belirleyicileri arasındadır.

Article Details

Test of Quadruplet Deficit Hypothesis in Turkey and PIIGS Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Authors:

Burcu Gediz Oral | Tuğba Arpazlı Fazlılar

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Uluslararası Finans

Journal:

Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.21 Issue 4, pp.25-42

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

12/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001307067

pISSN:

1304-4796

Quadruplet Deficit

Turkey

PIIGS

Panel Data Analysisdördüzaçık

Türkiye

PIIGS

Panel veri analizi

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Burcu Gediz Oral | Tuğba Arpazlı Fazlılar

Publisher: Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics: Uluslararası Finans

Journal: Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.21 Issue 4, pp.25-42

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 12/2023

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001307067

pISSN: 1304-4796

Issues

Authors:

Burcu Gediz Oral | Tuğba Arpazlı Fazlılar

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Uluslararası Finans

Journal:

Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.21 Issue 4, pp.25-42

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

12/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001307067

pISSN:

1304-4796