EFFECTS OF ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX, INTEREST RATE AND DOLLAR RATE ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: ARDL BOUND TEST

Hasan Usta

Article Details

EFFECTS OF ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX, INTEREST RATE AND DOLLAR RATE ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: ARDL BOUND TEST

Authors:

Hasan Usta

Publisher:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Main Topics:

Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Journal:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 15, pp.76-82

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001353167

pISSN:

2791-9579

Keywords:

Abstract:

 The Consumer Income Index CIE is an important index used to measure the future income expectations, investment and savings expenditures of decision makers in the country. This index is calculated in Turkey according to the monthly survey conducted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey CBRT and the Turkish Statistical Institute TUIK. According to the calculated value, economic expectations for the future of the economy are predicted. This index, which can take a value between 0 and 200, is interpreted as positive economic expectations for the future when it is above 100, and negative when it is below 100. In this study, a model is established using the variables of interest rates R, Dollar exchange rate USD and Borsa Istanbul 100 BIST index, which are thought to affect the Consumer Confidence Index CIE. Using the ARDL Bounds Test method, how these variables affect the CIE in the long and short term is calculated with cointegration analysis. In addition, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used to determine the mutual causality relationships between the variables. According to the results obtained, a 1 change in R affects TGE in the opposite direction by 0.0578 points, a 1 change in BIST affects TGE in the same direction by 0.1793 points and a 1 change in USD affects TGE in the opposite direction by 0.2085 points. According to the cointegration test result, the error correction coefficient calculated as -0.6871 shows that the effect of shocks will end after 1.46 months in the short term and the balance will be restored. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test result, it is concluded that there is a unidirectional and significant causality relationship from R, BIST and USD to TGE.

 The Consumer Income Index CIE is an important index used to measure the future income expectations, investment and savings expenditures of decision makers in the country. This index is calculated in Turkey according to the monthly survey conducted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey CBRT and the Turkish Statistical Institute TUIK. According to the calculated value, economic expectations for the future of the economy are predicted. This index, which can take a value between 0 and 200, is interpreted as positive economic expectations for the future when it is above 100, and negative when it is below 100. In this study, a model is established using the variables of interest rates R, Dollar exchange rate USD and Borsa Istanbul 100 BIST index, which are thought to affect the Consumer Confidence Index CIE. Using the ARDL Bounds Test method, how these variables affect the CIE in the long and short term is calculated with cointegration analysis. In addition, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used to determine the mutual causality relationships between the variables. According to the results obtained, a 1 change in R affects TGE in the opposite direction by 0.0578 points, a 1 change in BIST affects TGE in the same direction by 0.1793 points and a 1 change in USD affects TGE in the opposite direction by 0.2085 points. According to the cointegration test result, the error correction coefficient calculated as -0.6871 shows that the effect of shocks will end after 1.46 months in the short term and the balance will be restored. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test result, it is concluded that there is a unidirectional and significant causality relationship from R, BIST and USD to TGE.

 The Consumer Income Index CIE is an important index used to measure the future income expectations, investment and savings expenditures of decision makers in the country. This index is calculated in Turkey according to the monthly survey conducted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey CBRT and the Turkish Statistical Institute TUIK. According to the calculated value, economic expectations for the future of the economy are predicted. This index, which can take a value between 0 and 200, is interpreted as positive economic expectations for the future when it is above 100, and negative when it is below 100. In this study, a model is established using the variables of interest rates R, Dollar exchange rate USD and Borsa Istanbul 100 BIST index, which are thought to affect the Consumer Confidence Index CIE. Using the ARDL Bounds Test method, how these variables affect the CIE in the long and short term is calculated with cointegration analysis. In addition, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used to determine the mutual causality relationships between the variables. According to the results obtained, a 1 change in R affects TGE in the opposite direction by 0.0578 points, a 1 change in BIST affects TGE in the same direction by 0.1793 points and a 1 change in USD affects TGE in the opposite direction by 0.2085 points. According to the cointegration test result, the error correction coefficient calculated as -0.6871 shows that the effect of shocks will end after 1.46 months in the short term and the balance will be restored. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test result, it is concluded that there is a unidirectional and significant causality relationship from R, BIST and USD to TGE.

 Tüketici Gelir Endeksi TGE, ülkedeki karar alıcıların geleceğe yönelik gelir beklentilerini, yatırım ve tasarruf harcamalarını ölçmede kullanılan önemli bir endekstir. Bu endeks Türkiyede, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası TCMB ile Türkiye İstatistik Kurumunun TÜİK aylık yaptığı ankete göre hesaplanmaktadır. Hesaplanan değere göre ekonominin geleceğine yönelik ekonomik beklentiler öngörülmektedir. 0 ile 200 arasında değer alabilen bu endeksin 100ün üzerinde çıkması geleceğe yönelik ekonomik beklentilerin olumlu olduğu, 100ün altına inmesi ise olumsuz olduğu şeklinde yorumlanır. Bu çalışmada Tüketici Güven Endeksini TGE etkilediği düşünülen faiz oranları R, Dolar kuru USD ve Borsa İstanbul 100 BIST endeksi değişkenleri kullanılarak bir model kurulmuştur. ARDL Sınır Testi yöntemi kullanılarak bu değişkenlerin TGEyi uzun ve kısa dönemde nasıl etkilediği eşbütünleşme analizi ile hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile değişkenler arasındaki karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkileri tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, Rdeki 1lik değişim TGEyi ters yönde 0,0578 puan, BISTteki 1lik değişim TGEyi aynı yönde 0,1793 puan ve USDdeki 1lik değişim ise TGEyi ters yönde 0,2085 puan etkilemektedir. Eşbütünleşme testi sonucuna göre -0.6871 olarak hesaplanan hata düzeltme katsayı, kısa dönemde şokların etkisinin 1.46 ay sonra sona ereceğini ve dengenin tekrar sağlanacağını göstermektedir. Yapılan Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonucuna göre ise R, BIST ve USDden TGEye tek yönlü ve anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Article Details

EFFECTS OF ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX, INTEREST RATE AND DOLLAR RATE ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: ARDL BOUND TEST

Authors:

Hasan Usta

Publisher:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Main Topics:

Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Journal:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 15, pp.76-82

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001353167

pISSN:

2791-9579

ARDL Bound Test

Consumer Confidence Index

Toda-Yamamoto CausalityARDL Sınır Testi

Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik

Tüketici Güven Endeksi

Issues

Article Details

EFFECTS OF ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX, INTEREST RATE AND DOLLAR RATE ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: ARDL BOUND TEST

Authors: Hasan Usta

Publisher: Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Main Topics: Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Journal: Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 15, pp.76-82

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 6/2025

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001353167

pISSN: 2791-9579

ARDL Bound Test

Consumer Confidence Index

Toda-Yamamoto CausalityARDL Sınır Testi

Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik

Tüketici Güven Endeksi

Issues

Authors:

Hasan Usta

Publisher:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Main Topics:

Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Journal:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 15, pp.76-82

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001353167

pISSN:

2791-9579