ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Levent ÖZBEK; Hakan DEMİRTAŞ

doi:https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.840307

Article Details

ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Authors:

Levent ÖZBEK | Hakan DEMİRTAŞ

Publisher:

Eskisehir Technical University

Main Topics:

Astronomy and allied sciences

Journal:

Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 2021 Vol.22 Issue 3, pp.239-259

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2021

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2000416847

pISSN:

2667-4211

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.840307

Abstract:

 

In this study, cumulative and daily cases are estimated online using discrete-time Gompertz model (DTGM) and Adaptive Kalman Filter (AKF) based on the total COVID-19 cases between February 29-July 28, 2020 in USA, Germany, India, Russia, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Brazil. Employing the data collected between February 29 and July 28, 2020, it is showed that the DTGM in conjunction with AKF provides a good analysis tool for modeling the daily cases made using the in terms of mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and  R^2.

Article Details

ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Authors: Levent ÖZBEK | Hakan DEMİRTAŞ

Publisher: Eskisehir Technical University

Main Topics: Astronomy and allied sciences

Journal: Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 2021 Vol.22 Issue 3, pp.239-259

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 9/2021

Document Language: English

Document ID (Org No.): 2000416847

pISSN: 2667-4211

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.840307

Issues

Authors:

Levent ÖZBEK | Hakan DEMİRTAŞ

Publisher:

Eskisehir Technical University

Main Topics:

Astronomy and allied sciences

Journal:

Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 2021 Vol.22 Issue 3, pp.239-259

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2021

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2000416847

pISSN:

2667-4211

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.840307