Impact of Climate Change and Upstream Development on Domestic Water Security in the Euphrates River Basin, Iraq

zainab altaee; Saleh Issa  Khassaf

Article Details

Impact of Climate Change and Upstream Development on Domestic Water Security in the Euphrates River Basin, Iraq

Authors:

zainab altaee | Saleh Issa Khassaf

Publisher:

Iraqi Geologists Union (Union of Iraqi Geologists)

Journal:

The Iraqi Geological Journal Vol.59 Issue 1B, pp.18-35

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

2/2026

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001836980

pISSN:

2663-8754

Keywords:

Abstract:

 Climate change and upstream water management practices increasingly threaten the sustainability of water resources for populations along the Euphrates River in Iraq. The interaction between these two variables poses a significant challenge to water security in the Euphrates Basin, limiting the water system's ability to meet future demands sustainably. This study evaluates the cumulative effects of these factors on water security in the Euphrates Basin, using the RIBASIM model to analyze three climate scenarios alongside a scenario focused on upstream development. Additionally, an integrated scenario combining severe climate change with upstream growth was examined. The findings show that as the severity of climate change rises, there is a corresponding rise in domestic water deficits and a decline in supply reliability across Al-Anbar, Baghdad, Babylon, Karbala, Al-Najaf and Al-Qadisiyah Governorates, where the Domestic Water Reliability Index varies: SSP1-2.6 (0.92 to 0.99), SSP2-4.5 (0.91 to 0.99), and SSP5-8.5 (0.88 to 0.99). Conversely, Al-Muthana and Dhi-Qar Governorates exhibit more reliability in ensuring water security; the Domestic Water Reliability Index is 0.99. Upstream development poses a greater challenge than climate change alone, leading to a notable decrease in supply efficiency and a gradual reduction in Domestic Water Reliability Index, which drops to an index of 0.71 in Al-Qadisiyah Governorate. The integrated scenario reveals significant cumulative stress from both climatic and human-induced factors, resulting in a marked decline in supply reliability and a concerning rise in water stress, with Domestic Water Reliability Index values ranging from 0.59 to 0.99. This is the most hazardous scenario for population water security. These findings emphasize the urgent need to integrate climate data into shared water resource management within a quantitative framework, providing a scientific basis for decision-makers to formulate effective adaptation strategies to ensure water security amid future climatic and regional challenges.

Article Details

Impact of Climate Change and Upstream Development on Domestic Water Security in the Euphrates River Basin, Iraq

Authors:

zainab altaee | Saleh Issa Khassaf

Publisher:

Iraqi Geologists Union (Union of Iraqi Geologists)

Journal:

The Iraqi Geological Journal Vol.59 Issue 1B, pp.18-35

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

2/2026

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001836980

pISSN:

2663-8754

RIBASIM

Water security

Climate change

Euphrates basin

Iraq

Issues

Article Details

Impact of Climate Change and Upstream Development on Domestic Water Security in the Euphrates River Basin, Iraq

Authors: zainab altaee | Saleh Issa Khassaf

Publisher: Iraqi Geologists Union (Union of Iraqi Geologists)

Journal: The Iraqi Geological Journal Vol.59 Issue 1B, pp.18-35

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 2/2026

Document Language: English

Document ID (Org No.): 2001836980

pISSN: 2663-8754

RIBASIM

Water security

Climate change

Euphrates basin

Iraq

Issues

Authors:

zainab altaee | Saleh Issa Khassaf

Publisher:

Iraqi Geologists Union (Union of Iraqi Geologists)

Journal:

The Iraqi Geological Journal Vol.59 Issue 1B, pp.18-35

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

2/2026

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001836980

pISSN:

2663-8754