An Analysis of the Relationship between Business Confidence and Macroeconomic Factors: Türkiye Case

Murat Akkaya

Article Details

An Analysis of the Relationship between Business Confidence and Macroeconomic Factors: Türkiye Case

Authors:

Murat Akkaya

Publisher:

Afyon Kocatepe University

Main Topics:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Journal:

Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 1, pp.140-152

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2024

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001313571

pISSN:

1302-1265

Keywords:

Abstract:

 Investor sentiment plays an important role in the all level of economic activities. Confidence as an indicator of investor sentiment has become an important and interesting concept in recent years. Confidence indicators are a way in assessing economic developments in the short term. The aim of this study is to analyze the long and short term relationship between the Real Sector Confidence Index and macroeconomicfinancial variables for the period of January 2007  December 2021. The Johansen Cointegration Test results prove a long-term cointegration relationship. Vector Error Correction Models for both macroeconomic and financial variables are statistically significant at the 5 level. In the short run, Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Ratio, Official Reserves, Domestic Debt Stocks, Real Exchance Rate, US DollarTRL Buying Rate, Non-Residents Stock Portfolio and Volatility Index have a statistically significant effect on the changes in Real Sector Confidence Index. Thus, this study informs investors to predict the effects of changes in the confidence index on financial instruments bilaterally and contribute to their investment decision.

 Investor sentiment plays an important role in the all level of economic activities. Confidence as an indicator of investor sentiment has become an important and interesting concept in recent years. Confidence indicators are a way in assessing economic developments in the short term. The aim of this study is to analyze the long and short term relationship between the Real Sector Confidence Index and macroeconomicfinancial variables for the period of January 2007  December 2021. The Johansen Cointegration Test results prove a long-term cointegration relationship. Vector Error Correction Models for both macroeconomic and financial variables are statistically significant at the 5 level. In the short run, Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Ratio, Official Reserves, Domestic Debt Stocks, Real Exchance Rate, US DollarTRL Buying Rate, Non-Residents Stock Portfolio and Volatility Index have a statistically significant effect on the changes in Real Sector Confidence Index. Thus, this study informs investors to predict the effects of changes in the confidence index on financial instruments bilaterally and contribute to their investment decision.

 Investor sentiment plays an important role in the all level of economic activities. Confidence as an indicator of investor sentiment has become an important and interesting concept in recent years. Confidence indicators are a way in assessing economic developments in the short term. The aim of this study is to analyze the long and short term relationship between the Real Sector Confidence Index and macroeconomicfinancial variables for the period of January 2007  December 2021. The Johansen Cointegration Test results prove a long-term cointegration relationship. Vector Error Correction Models for both macroeconomic and financial variables are statistically significant at the 5 level. In the short run, Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Ratio, Official Reserves, Domestic Debt Stocks, Real Exchance Rate, US DollarTRL Buying Rate, Non-Residents Stock Portfolio and Volatility Index have a statistically significant effect on the changes in Real Sector Confidence Index. Thus, this study informs investors to predict the effects of changes in the confidence index on financial instruments bilaterally and contribute to their investment decision.

 Yatırımcı duyarlılığı, ekonomik faaliyetlerin her düzeyinde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Yatırımcı duyarlılığının bir göstergesi olarak güven, son yıllarda önemli ve ilgi çekici bir kavram haline gelmiştir. Güven göstergeleri, kısa vadede ekonomik gelişmeleri değerlendirmenin bir yoludur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, öncü gösterge olan Reel Kesim Güven Endeksi ile makroekonomikfinansal değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiyi Ocak 2007  Aralık 2021 dönemi için analiz etmektir. Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi sonuçları uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisini kanıtlamaktadır. Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modelleri hem makroekonomik hem de finansal değişkenler için 5 düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Reel Kesim Güven Endeksindeki değişimler üzerinde kısa vadede İmalat Kapasitesi Kullanım Oranı, Resmi Rezervler, İç Borç Stokları, Reel Döviz Kuru, ABD DolarıTL Alış Kuru, Yurt Dışı Stok Portföyü ve Oynaklık Endeksi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Böylelikle bu çalışma, yatırımcılara güven endeksindeki değişimlerin finansal araçlar üzerindeki etkilerini ikili olarak tahmin etmeleri ve yatırım kararlarına katkı sağlamaları konusunda bilgi vermektedir.

Article Details

An Analysis of the Relationship between Business Confidence and Macroeconomic Factors: Türkiye Case

Authors:

Murat Akkaya

Publisher:

Afyon Kocatepe University

Main Topics:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Journal:

Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 1, pp.140-152

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2024

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001313571

pISSN:

1302-1265

Business Confidence Index

financial forecasting

VECM analysis

TürkiyeReel Sektör Güven Endeksi

finansal tahminleme

VECM analizi

Türkiye

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Murat Akkaya

Publisher: Afyon Kocatepe University

Main Topics: Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Journal: Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 1, pp.140-152

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 4/2024

Document Language: English

Document ID (Org No.): 2001313571

pISSN: 1302-1265

Issues

Authors:

Murat Akkaya

Publisher:

Afyon Kocatepe University

Main Topics:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Journal:

Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 1, pp.140-152

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2024

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001313571

pISSN:

1302-1265