The evaluation of the correlation between at least two doses COVID-19 vaccine coverage rate and the case incidence: An ecological study

Deniz Erdal; Caferi Tayyar Şaşmaz

Article Details

The evaluation of the correlation between at least two doses COVID-19 vaccine coverage rate and the case incidence: An ecological study

Authors:

Deniz Erdal | Caferi Tayyar Şaşmaz

Publisher:

Eskişehir Osmangazi University

Main Topics:

Halk Sağlığı | Çevre Sağlığı

Journal:

Eskişehir Türk Dünyası Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi Halk Sağlığı Dergisi Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.142-150

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

5/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290469

pISSN:

2564-6311

Keywords:

Abstract:

 The aim of this study is to evaluate the correlation between the second dose vaccine coverage rate and the incidence of COVID-19 in the cities in order to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on the community in our country. In this study, which was planned in ecological type, data on weekly Covid-19 incidences in the cities and cumulative 2-dose vaccination coverage rate published by the Ministry of Health were used. A correlation analysis of 29-week data obtained from 81 cities between the week of September 04-10, 2021 and March 19-25, 2022 was performed. Since the weekly incidence and cumulative 2nd dose vaccine coverage rates did not provide the conditions of parametric test, Spearman correlation test was performed. In the week of September 04-10, 2021, a weak statistically significant negative correlation rho 0,390, p0,001 was calculated between the weekly incidence in the cities and the coverage rate of the second dose of vaccine. In the following weeks, the correlation turned into positive and peaked in the week of December 11-17 rho:0,739 p0,001. In the following weeks, it was determined that the statistically significant positive correlation ranged from 0,351 to 0,716 p0,01. As a result, in our country, strong positive correlation was found between the increase in the 2nd dose COVID-19 vaccination coverage rate and the incidence of cases. This result can be explained by the fact that the highly contagious SarsCov-2 Omicron variant was dominant and escaped from the vaccine immunity during the study.

 The aim of this study is to evaluate the correlation between the second dose vaccine coverage rate and the incidence of COVID-19 in the cities in order to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on the community in our country. In this study, which was planned in ecological type, data on weekly Covid-19 incidences in the cities and cumulative 2-dose vaccination coverage rate published by the Ministry of Health were used. A correlation analysis of 29-week data obtained from 81 cities between the week of September 04-10, 2021 and March 19-25, 2022 was performed. Since the weekly incidence and cumulative 2nd dose vaccine coverage rates did not provide the conditions of parametric test, Spearman correlation test was performed. In the week of September 04-10, 2021, a weak statistically significant negative correlation rho 0,390, p0,001 was calculated between the weekly incidence in the cities and the coverage rate of the second dose of vaccine. In the following weeks, the correlation turned into positive and peaked in the week of December 11-17 rho:0,739 p0,001. In the following weeks, it was determined that the statistically significant positive correlation ranged from 0,351 to 0,716 p0,01. As a result, in our country, strong positive correlation was found between the increase in the 2nd dose COVID-19 vaccination coverage rate and the incidence of cases. This result can be explained by the fact that the highly contagious SarsCov-2 Omicron variant was dominant and escaped from the vaccine immunity during the study.

 The aim of this study is to evaluate the correlation between the second dose vaccine coverage rate and the incidence of COVID-19 in the cities in order to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on the community in our country. In this study, which was planned in ecological type, data on weekly Covid-19 incidences in the cities and cumulative 2-dose vaccination coverage rate published by the Ministry of Health were used. A correlation analysis of 29-week data obtained from 81 cities between the week of September 04-10, 2021 and March 19-25, 2022 was performed. Since the weekly incidence and cumulative 2nd dose vaccine coverage rates did not provide the conditions of parametric test, Spearman correlation test was performed. In the week of September 04-10, 2021, a weak statistically significant negative correlation rho 0,390, p0,001 was calculated between the weekly incidence in the cities and the coverage rate of the second dose of vaccine. In the following weeks, the correlation turned into positive and peaked in the week of December 11-17 rho:0,739 p0,001. In the following weeks, it was determined that the statistically significant positive correlation ranged from 0,351 to 0,716 p0,01. As a result, in our country, strong positive correlation was found between the increase in the 2nd dose COVID-19 vaccination coverage rate and the incidence of cases. This result can be explained by the fact that the highly contagious SarsCov-2 Omicron variant was dominant and escaped from the vaccine immunity during the study.

 Bu çalışmanın amacı, ülkemizde COVID-19 aşılamasının toplumsal düzeyde etkisini değerlendirmek için, illere göre ikinci doz aşı kapsayıcılık hızı ile COVID-19 insidansı arasındaki korelasyonu değerlendirmektir. Ekolojik tipte planlanan bu çalışmada, Sağlık Bakanlığının yayınladığı, illere göre haftalık COVİD-19 insidansı ile kümülatif 2. doz COVID-19 aşı kapsayıcılık hız verileri kullanılmıştır. 04-10 Eylül 2021 haftası ile 19-25 Mart 2022 arasındaki 81 İle ait 29 haftalık verinin korelasyon analizi yapılmıştır. Haftalık insidans ve kümülatif 2. doz aşı kapsayıcılık hızları parametrik test koşullarını sağlamadığından Spearman korelasyon testi kullanılmıştır. 04-10 Eylül 2021 haftasında, illere göre haftalık insidans ile 2. doz aşı kapsayıcılık hızı arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı zayıf negatif yönlü bir korelasyon rho 0,390, p0,001 hesaplanmıştır. İlerleyen haftalarda korelasyonun yönü pozitife dönmüş olup 11-17 Aralık haftasında en yüksek seviyesine çıkmıştır rho:0,739 p0,001. Sonraki haftalarda istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olan pozitif korelasyonun 0,351  0,716 p0,01 arasında değiştiği tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak ülkemizde 2. doz COVID-19 aşı kapsayıcılık hızının artması ile vaka insidansı arasında kuvvetli bir pozitif korelasyon tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuç, çalışma döneminde bulaştırıcılığı yüksek SarsCov-2 Omicron varyantının, baskın ve aşı bağışıklığından kaçması ile açıklanabilir.

Article Details

The evaluation of the correlation between at least two doses COVID-19 vaccine coverage rate and the case incidence: An ecological study

Authors:

Deniz Erdal | Caferi Tayyar Şaşmaz

Publisher:

Eskişehir Osmangazi University

Main Topics:

Halk Sağlığı | Çevre Sağlığı

Journal:

Eskişehir Türk Dünyası Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi Halk Sağlığı Dergisi Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.142-150

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

5/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290469

pISSN:

2564-6311

COVID-19 Vaccines

Incidence

Correlation studyCOVID-19 Aşıları

Korelasyon çalışması

İnsidans

Issues

Article Details

The evaluation of the correlation between at least two doses COVID-19 vaccine coverage rate and the case incidence: An ecological study

Authors: Deniz Erdal | Caferi Tayyar Şaşmaz

Publisher: Eskişehir Osmangazi University

Main Topics: Halk Sağlığı | Çevre Sağlığı

Journal: Eskişehir Türk Dünyası Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi Halk Sağlığı Dergisi Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.142-150

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 5/2023

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001290469

pISSN: 2564-6311

COVID-19 Vaccines

Incidence

Correlation studyCOVID-19 Aşıları

Korelasyon çalışması

İnsidans

Issues

Authors:

Deniz Erdal | Caferi Tayyar Şaşmaz

Publisher:

Eskişehir Osmangazi University

Main Topics:

Halk Sağlığı | Çevre Sağlığı

Journal:

Eskişehir Türk Dünyası Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi Halk Sağlığı Dergisi Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.142-150

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

5/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290469

pISSN:

2564-6311