Investigation of the Relationship between Borsa Istanbul 100 Index and Foreign Exchange, Gold and Interest Rates by ARDL Method

Mesut Fenkli; Doğan Uysal; Volkan Alptekin

Article Details

Investigation of the Relationship between Borsa Istanbul 100 Index and Foreign Exchange, Gold and Interest Rates by ARDL Method

Authors:

Mesut Fenkli | Doğan Uysal | Volkan Alptekin

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Finansal Ekonomi

Journal:

Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 3, pp.340-364

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001359934

pISSN:

1304-4796

Keywords:

Abstract:

 Exchange rates, gold price, Central Bank of Turkey CBRT policy rate and benchmark interest rate are among the most important determinants in both capital and money markets. Therefore, the relationship between the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index BIST 100, exchange rates, gold price and interest rates is worth investigating. For this purpose, time series consisting of 142 frequency monthly observations from 01052013 to 01022025 were constructed for all variables and analysed using ARDL method. As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a positive relationship between the BIST 100 index, the euro exchange rate and the MB interest rate, and a negative relationship between the BIST 100 index, the gold price and the benchmark interest rate. In the short run, there is a positive relationship between the BIST 100 index and the euro exchange rate, a negative relationship between the BIST 100 index, the gold price and the benchmark interest rate, and according to the estimated error correction model, 13 of the variables will return to equilibrium in the case of a possible imbalance in the variables in equilibrium in the short run.

 Exchange rates, gold price, Central Bank of Turkey CBRT policy rate and benchmark interest rate are among the most important determinants in both capital and money markets. Therefore, the relationship between the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index BIST 100, exchange rates, gold price and interest rates is worth investigating. For this purpose, time series consisting of 142 frequency monthly observations from 01052013 to 01022025 were constructed for all variables and analysed using ARDL method. As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a positive relationship between the BIST 100 index, the euro exchange rate and the MB interest rate, and a negative relationship between the BIST 100 index, the gold price and the benchmark interest rate. In the short run, there is a positive relationship between the BIST 100 index and the euro exchange rate, a negative relationship between the BIST 100 index, the gold price and the benchmark interest rate, and according to the estimated error correction model, 13 of the variables will return to equilibrium in the case of a possible imbalance in the variables in equilibrium in the short run.

 Exchange rates, gold price, Central Bank of Turkey CBRT policy rate and benchmark interest rate are among the most important determinants in both capital and money markets. Therefore, the relationship between the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index BIST 100, exchange rates, gold price and interest rates is worth investigating. For this purpose, time series consisting of 142 frequency monthly observations from 01052013 to 01022025 were constructed for all variables and analysed using ARDL method. As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a positive relationship between the BIST 100 index, the euro exchange rate and the MB interest rate, and a negative relationship between the BIST 100 index, the gold price and the benchmark interest rate. In the short run, there is a positive relationship between the BIST 100 index and the euro exchange rate, a negative relationship between the BIST 100 index, the gold price and the benchmark interest rate, and according to the estimated error correction model, 13 of the variables will return to equilibrium in the case of a possible imbalance in the variables in equilibrium in the short run.

 Döviz kurları, altın fiyatı, Merkez Bankası MB politika faiz oranı ve gösterge faiz oranı para piyasalarında belirleyici olduğu gibi sermaye piyasalarındaki en önemli belirleyiciler arasında yer almaktadır. Bundan dolayı Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi BİST 100, döviz kurları, altın fiyatı ve faiz oranları arasındaki ilişki araştırılmaya değer görülmüştür. Bunun için tüm değişkenler için ulaşılabilinen en eski 01052013 tarihinden 01022025 tarihine kadar aylık 142 frekans gözlemden oluşan zaman serileri oluşturularak ARDL yöntemiyle analiz yapılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda araştırma konusu dönem içerisinde, BİST 100 endeksi, Euro kuru ve MB faiz oranı arasında pozitif, BİST 100 endeksi, altın fiyatı ve gösterge faiz oranı arasında negatif ilişki olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Kısa dönemde ise BİST 100 endeksi ve Euro kuru arasında pozitif, BİST 100 endeksi, altın fiyatı ve gösterge faiz oranı arasında negatif ilişki olmasının yanı sıra tahmin edilen hata düzeltme modeline göre kısa dönemde denge durumundaki değişkenlerde yaşanması muhtemel bir dengesizlik durumunda değişkenlerin 13nün tekrar denge konumuna döneceği tespit edilmiştir.

Article Details

Investigation of the Relationship between Borsa Istanbul 100 Index and Foreign Exchange, Gold and Interest Rates by ARDL Method

Authors:

Mesut Fenkli | Doğan Uysal | Volkan Alptekin

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Finansal Ekonomi

Journal:

Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 3, pp.340-364

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001359934

pISSN:

1304-4796

Financial Markets

ARDL Model

Financial Developmentfinansal piyasalar

finansal gelişme

ARDL Model

Issues

Article Details

Investigation of the Relationship between Borsa Istanbul 100 Index and Foreign Exchange, Gold and Interest Rates by ARDL Method

Authors: Mesut Fenkli | Doğan Uysal | Volkan Alptekin

Publisher: Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics: Finansal Ekonomi

Journal: Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 3, pp.340-364

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 9/2025

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001359934

pISSN: 1304-4796

Financial Markets

ARDL Model

Financial Developmentfinansal piyasalar

finansal gelişme

ARDL Model

Issues

Authors:

Mesut Fenkli | Doğan Uysal | Volkan Alptekin

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Finansal Ekonomi

Journal:

Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 3, pp.340-364

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001359934

pISSN:

1304-4796