A MODEL SELECTION FOR PRICE FORCASTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL AND FRESH FRUIT BUNCH PRICE FORECASTING

K. Sukiyono; N. N. Arianti; B. Sumantri; M. Mustopa Romdhon; M. Suryanty

doi:10.36103/ijas.v52i2.1312

Article Details

A MODEL SELECTION FOR PRICE FORCASTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL AND FRESH FRUIT BUNCH PRICE FORECASTING

Authors:

K. Sukiyono | N. N. Arianti | B. Sumantri | M. Mustopa Romdhon | M. Suryanty

Publisher:

University of Baghdad

Journal:

IRAQI JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES Vol.52 Issue 2, pp.44306-4

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2021

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001371637

pISSN:

2410-0862

DOI:

10.36103/ijas.v52i2.1312

Keywords:

Abstract:

 This study was aimed to determining a fitted forecasting method for the forecasting of crude palm oil prices at international and domestic market as well as fresh fruit bunch prices at collecting merchant and farmer level in Bengkulu Province market by considering three models, namely, double exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average, and classical decomposition. The data used were monthly data of crude palm oil prices at domestic and world markets from January 2012 – October 2016 and January 2012 – April 2017, while the fresh fruit bunch data at collecting merchant and farmers in Bengkulu Province were also monthly data from 2007 – 2014. The result showedthat the most accurate method was ARIMA for all prices at all market levels. This decision was based on all criteria used to determine the best model including MAPE, MAD, and MSD.

Article Details

A MODEL SELECTION FOR PRICE FORCASTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL AND FRESH FRUIT BUNCH PRICE FORECASTING

Authors:

K. Sukiyono | N. N. Arianti | B. Sumantri | M. Mustopa Romdhon | M. Suryanty

Publisher:

University of Baghdad

Journal:

IRAQI JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES Vol.52 Issue 2, pp.44306-4

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2021

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001371637

pISSN:

2410-0862

DOI:

10.36103/ijas.v52i2.1312

forecasting

exponential smoothing

ARIMA

decomposition method

CPO

FFB

Issues

Article Details

A MODEL SELECTION FOR PRICE FORCASTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL AND FRESH FRUIT BUNCH PRICE FORECASTING

Authors: K. Sukiyono | N. N. Arianti | B. Sumantri | M. Mustopa Romdhon | M. Suryanty

Publisher: University of Baghdad

Journal: IRAQI JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES Vol.52 Issue 2, pp.44306-4

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 4/2021

Document Language: English

Document ID (Org No.): 2001371637

pISSN: 2410-0862

DOI: 10.36103/ijas.v52i2.1312

forecasting

exponential smoothing

ARIMA

decomposition method

CPO

FFB

Issues

Authors:

K. Sukiyono | N. N. Arianti | B. Sumantri | M. Mustopa Romdhon | M. Suryanty

Publisher:

University of Baghdad

Journal:

IRAQI JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES Vol.52 Issue 2, pp.44306-4

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2021

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001371637

pISSN:

2410-0862

DOI:

10.36103/ijas.v52i2.1312