DETERMINING THE FACTORS IMPACTING THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP: BINARY PANEL LOGIT MODEL ANALYSIS

Yüksel Çağdaş; Fatih Savaşan

Article Details

DETERMINING THE FACTORS IMPACTING THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP: BINARY PANEL LOGIT MODEL ANALYSIS

Authors:

Yüksel Çağdaş | Fatih Savaşan

Publisher:

Anadolu University

Main Topics:

Growth | Policy of Treasury

Journal:

Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.262-284

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001351760

pISSN:

2687-184X

Keywords:

Abstract:

 It is observed that some countries experience stagnation in their economic growth rate after reaching the upper-middle income stage. The situation where high-income levels cannot be reached for many years as a result of this stagnation is defined the Middle-Income Trap. The failure of a country that has just reached the upper-middle income level to achieve structural transformation is seen as the main reason for the Middle-Income Trap. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors impacting the Middle-Income Trap. So that, a double panel logit model analysis covering the period 1995-2022 was conducted on selected countries. The findings revealed that the production of high value-added goods, exports, capital accumulation, foreign direct investments, RD, education, qualified and total workforce and institutional improvement increase the possibility of avoiding the Middle-Income Trap. On the other hand, it has been shown that the growth of the public economy increases the risk of being caught in the Middle-Income Trap.

 It is observed that some countries experience stagnation in their economic growth rate after reaching the upper-middle income stage. The situation where high-income levels cannot be reached for many years as a result of this stagnation is defined the Middle-Income Trap. The failure of a country that has just reached the upper-middle income level to achieve structural transformation is seen as the main reason for the Middle-Income Trap. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors impacting the Middle-Income Trap. So that, a double panel logit model analysis covering the period 1995-2022 was conducted on selected countries. The findings revealed that the production of high value-added goods, exports, capital accumulation, foreign direct investments, RD, education, qualified and total workforce and institutional improvement increase the possibility of avoiding the Middle-Income Trap. On the other hand, it has been shown that the growth of the public economy increases the risk of being caught in the Middle-Income Trap.

 It is observed that some countries experience stagnation in their economic growth rate after reaching the upper-middle income stage. The situation where high-income levels cannot be reached for many years as a result of this stagnation is defined the Middle-Income Trap. The failure of a country that has just reached the upper-middle income level to achieve structural transformation is seen as the main reason for the Middle-Income Trap. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors impacting the Middle-Income Trap. So that, a double panel logit model analysis covering the period 1995-2022 was conducted on selected countries. The findings revealed that the production of high value-added goods, exports, capital accumulation, foreign direct investments, RD, education, qualified and total workforce and institutional improvement increase the possibility of avoiding the Middle-Income Trap. On the other hand, it has been shown that the growth of the public economy increases the risk of being caught in the Middle-Income Trap.

 Bazı ülkelerin üst-orta gelir aşamasına eriştikten sonra ekonomik büyüme hızında durağanlaşmalar olduğu gözlemlenmektedir. Bu durağanlaşma neticesinde yüksek gelir düzeyine uzun yıllar erişilememesi durumuna Orta Gelir Tuzağı denilmektedir. Üst-orta gelir düzeyine henüz ulaşan ülkenin yapısal dönüşümünü sağlayamaması Orta Gelir Tuzağının en temel nedeni olarak görülmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Orta Gelir Tuzağına etki eden faktörleri araştırmaktır. Bu bağlamda seçilmiş ülkeler üzerine 1995-2022 dönemini kapsayan ikili panel logit model analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, katma değeri yüksek malların üretimi, ihracat, sermaye birikimi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, Ar-Ge, eğitim, nitelikli ve toplam iş gücü ile kurumsal iyileşmenin Orta Gelir Tuzağından kaçınma olasılığını artırdığını ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bununla birlikte kamu ekonomisinin büyümesinin ise Orta Gelir Tuzağına yakalanma riskini artırdığını göstermiştir.

Article Details

DETERMINING THE FACTORS IMPACTING THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP: BINARY PANEL LOGIT MODEL ANALYSIS

Authors:

Yüksel Çağdaş | Fatih Savaşan

Publisher:

Anadolu University

Main Topics:

Growth | Policy of Treasury

Journal:

Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.262-284

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001351760

pISSN:

2687-184X

Middle-Income Trap

Panel Qualitative Choice Model

Binary Panel Logit Model

Economic Growth and DevelopmentOrta Gelir Tuzağı

Panel Nitel Tercih Modeli

İkili Panel Logit Model

Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kalkınma

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Yüksel Çağdaş | Fatih Savaşan

Publisher: Anadolu University

Main Topics: Growth | Policy of Treasury

Journal: Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.262-284

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 6/2025

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001351760

pISSN: 2687-184X

Issues

Authors:

Yüksel Çağdaş | Fatih Savaşan

Publisher:

Anadolu University

Main Topics:

Growth | Policy of Treasury

Journal:

Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.262-284

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001351760

pISSN:

2687-184X