The Relationship between Agricultural Non-performing Credits and the Agricultural Producer Price Index: Evidence from Fourier Tests

Ömer Keskin

Article Details

The Relationship between Agricultural Non-performing Credits and the Agricultural Producer Price Index: Evidence from Fourier Tests

Authors:

Ömer Keskin

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Zaman Serileri Analizi | Mikro İktisat (Diğer) | Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık (Diğer)

Journal:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.32 Issue 2, pp.327-340

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001350449

pISSN:

1302-0064

Keywords:

Abstract:

 This study empirically investigates the impact of changes in the agricultural PPI on the amount of non-performing agricultural credits in Türkiye. Using monthly data spanning the period from January 2010 to April 2024, this research applies several econometric methods that account for structural breaks, including the Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller FADF unit root test, the Fourier Autoregressive Distributive Lag FADL model, the Residual Augmented Least Squares RALS-FADL cointegration test, and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto FTY causality test. The findings reveal that a 1 increase in the agricultural PPI reduces the amount of non-performing agricultural credits by approximately 0.62 in the long run, and the direction of the interaction is from the agricultural PPI to non-performing agricultural credits. Based on the findings, it is recommended that legal regulations be enacted to improve the incomes of agricultural enterprises, each agricultural credit application be meticulously scrutinized, and stakeholders actively cooperate and coordinate to maintain a mutually beneficial relationship between the Turkish agricultural and banking sectors. Key Words: Agricultural Credit, Agricultural Producer Price Index, Fourier Tests, Time Series Analysis JEL Classification: Q14, Q11.

 This study empirically investigates the impact of changes in the agricultural PPI on the amount of non-performing agricultural credits in Türkiye. Using monthly data spanning the period from January 2010 to April 2024, this research applies several econometric methods that account for structural breaks, including the Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller FADF unit root test, the Fourier Autoregressive Distributive Lag FADL model, the Residual Augmented Least Squares RALS-FADL cointegration test, and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto FTY causality test. The findings reveal that a 1 increase in the agricultural PPI reduces the amount of non-performing agricultural credits by approximately 0.62 in the long run, and the direction of the interaction is from the agricultural PPI to non-performing agricultural credits. Based on the findings, it is recommended that legal regulations be enacted to improve the incomes of agricultural enterprises, each agricultural credit application be meticulously scrutinized, and stakeholders actively cooperate and coordinate to maintain a mutually beneficial relationship between the Turkish agricultural and banking sectors. Key Words: Agricultural Credit, Agricultural Producer Price Index, Fourier Tests, Time Series Analysis JEL Classification: Q14, Q11.

 This study empirically investigates the impact of changes in the agricultural PPI on the amount of non-performing agricultural credits in Türkiye. Using monthly data spanning the period from January 2010 to April 2024, this research applies several econometric methods that account for structural breaks, including the Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller FADF unit root test, the Fourier Autoregressive Distributive Lag FADL model, the Residual Augmented Least Squares RALS-FADL cointegration test, and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto FTY causality test. The findings reveal that a 1 increase in the agricultural PPI reduces the amount of non-performing agricultural credits by approximately 0.62 in the long run, and the direction of the interaction is from the agricultural PPI to non-performing agricultural credits. Based on the findings, it is recommended that legal regulations be enacted to improve the incomes of agricultural enterprises, each agricultural credit application be meticulously scrutinized, and stakeholders actively cooperate and coordinate to maintain a mutually beneficial relationship between the Turkish agricultural and banking sectors. Key Words: Agricultural Credit, Agricultural Producer Price Index, Fourier Tests, Time Series Analysis JEL Classification: Q14, Q11.

 Bu çalışma, Türkiyede tarım-ÜFE değerindeki değişimin takipteki tarımsal kredi miktarındaki değişime etkisini ampirik olarak araştırma girişimidir. Veri dönemi olarak 2010M1-2024M4 yıllarını kapsayan aylık verilerin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada her türlü yapısal değişimi dikkate alan Fourier Artırılmış Dickey-Fuller FADF birim kök, Fourier Otoregresif Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış FADL, Hata Terimleriyle Genişletilmiş En Küçük Kareler RALS-FADL eşbütünleşme ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto FTY nedensellik test yöntemleri uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, tarım-ÜFE değerindeki 1lik yükselişin takipteki tarımsal kredilerin miktarını uzun dönemde yaklaşık 0,62 kadar düşürdüğünü ve etkileşimin yönünün tarım-ÜFEden takipteki tarımsal kredilere doğru olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgulara dayalı olarak, Türk tarım ve bankacılık sektörü arasındaki ilişkinin karşılıklı fayda sağlanan bir ilişki çerçevesinde sürebilmesi için tarım işletmelerinin gelirlerini iyileştirici yasal düzenlemeler yapılması, her bir tarımsal kredi talebinin titiz incelemeye tabi tutulması ve paydaşların iş birliği ve sıkı koordinasyon içinde rollerini aktif bir şekilde oynamaları önerilmektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Tarımsal Kredi, Tarım-Üretici Fiyat Endeksi, Fourier Testler, Zaman Serisi Analizi JEL Sınıflandırması: Q14, Q11.

Article Details

The Relationship between Agricultural Non-performing Credits and the Agricultural Producer Price Index: Evidence from Fourier Tests

Authors:

Ömer Keskin

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Zaman Serileri Analizi | Mikro İktisat (Diğer) | Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık (Diğer)

Journal:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.32 Issue 2, pp.327-340

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001350449

pISSN:

1302-0064

Agricultural Credit

Agricultural Producer Price Index

Fourier Tests

Time Series AnalysisTarımsal Kredi

Tarım-Üretici Fiyat Endeksi

Fourier Testler

Zaman Serisi Analizi

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Ömer Keskin

Publisher: Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics: Zaman Serileri Analizi | Mikro İktisat (Diğer) | Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık (Diğer)

Journal: Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.32 Issue 2, pp.327-340

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 6/2025

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001350449

pISSN: 1302-0064

Issues

Authors:

Ömer Keskin

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Zaman Serileri Analizi | Mikro İktisat (Diğer) | Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık (Diğer)

Journal:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.32 Issue 2, pp.327-340

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

6/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001350449

pISSN:

1302-0064