Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply

Hamidreza Mostafaei; Leila SAKHABAKHSH

Article Details

Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply

Authors:

Hamidreza Mostafaei | Leila SAKHABAKHSH

Publisher:

İlhan ÖZTÜRK

Journal:

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2012 Vol.2 Issue 1, pp.41-49

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

2/2012

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2000816946

Frequency:

Bimonthly

eISSN:

2146-4553

Abstract:

 

In this paper the specification of long memory has been studied using monthly data in total oil supply in Iran from 1994 to 2009. Because monthly oil supply series in Iran are showing non-stationary and periodic behavior we fit the data with SARIMA and SARFIMA models, and estimate the parameters using conditional sum of squares method. The results indicate the best model is SARFIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, -0.199, 0)12 which is used to predict the quantity of oil supply in Iran till the end of 2020. Therefore SARFIMA model can be used as the best model for predicting the amount of oil supply in the future.

Article Details

Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply

Authors: Hamidreza Mostafaei | Leila SAKHABAKHSH

Publisher: İlhan ÖZTÜRK

Journal: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2012 Vol.2 Issue 1, pp.41-49

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 2/2012

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2000816946

Frequency: Bimonthly

eISSN: 2146-4553

Issues

Authors:

Hamidreza Mostafaei | Leila SAKHABAKHSH

Publisher:

İlhan ÖZTÜRK

Journal:

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2012 Vol.2 Issue 1, pp.41-49

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

2/2012

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2000816946

Frequency:

Bimonthly

eISSN:

2146-4553