Türkiye’s Shifting Policies Toward the Cyprus Issue and the Eastern Mediterranean Dispute

Mehmet Bardakçı

Article Details

Türkiye’s Shifting Policies Toward the Cyprus Issue and the Eastern Mediterranean Dispute

Authors:

Mehmet Bardakçı

Publisher:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Journal:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Issue 76, pp.238-253

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2023

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288485

pISSN:

1302-1842

Keywords:

Abstract:

 A main objective of this article is to examine the underlying reasons behind the collapse of the reunification talks on Cyprus aimed at a federal model. Another aim of the article is to analyze Türkiyes assertive policy in the Eastern Mediterranean. A major argument is that the disruption of the balance of power with respect to the Cyprus problem in favor of the Greek Cypriots after 2004 and the lack of a shared Cypriot identity were fundamental causes of the failure of the talks. The study also contends that the emergence of a siege mentality after the July 2016 coup plot in Türkiye, together with its economic and military strengthening, the rise of multi-polarity in international politics, and diminishing EU political sway in the country, incentivized Türkiye to pursue an active foreign policy agenda in the Eastern Mediterranean. This study concludes that the failure of long-standing negotiations to reach a federal settlement on the island and the comfortable position obtained by the Greek Cypriot Administration GCA in the negotiations vis-à-vis the Turkish side following the accession to the EU together with Türkiyes nationalist posture after 2016 and the deepening of the identity dilemma among the Greek and Turkish Cypriots over the course of time induced Türkiye to shelve a federal solution to the Cyprus issue and return to a pre-2002 two-state solution. The article also concludes that Türkiye was further prompted to take an independent course in the Eastern Mediterranean by the combination of a number of factors: the rapprochement between the AKP Government and nationalist elements in the country after the 2016 coup plot, the militarization of its foreign policy, Türkiyes perception that the West was in decline, the decreased credibility and thus leverage over Türkiye of EU political conditionality, Brussels shortcomings regarding a common security and foreign policy and the rise in Türkiyes military and economic capabilities.

 A main objective of this article is to examine the underlying reasons behind the collapse of the reunification talks on Cyprus aimed at a federal model. Another aim of the article is to analyze Türkiyes assertive policy in the Eastern Mediterranean. A major argument is that the disruption of the balance of power with respect to the Cyprus problem in favor of the Greek Cypriots after 2004 and the lack of a shared Cypriot identity were fundamental causes of the failure of the talks. The study also contends that the emergence of a siege mentality after the July 2016 coup plot in Türkiye, together with its economic and military strengthening, the rise of multi-polarity in international politics, and diminishing EU political sway in the country, incentivized Türkiye to pursue an active foreign policy agenda in the Eastern Mediterranean. This study concludes that the failure of long-standing negotiations to reach a federal settlement on the island and the comfortable position obtained by the Greek Cypriot Administration GCA in the negotiations vis-à-vis the Turkish side following the accession to the EU together with Türkiyes nationalist posture after 2016 and the deepening of the identity dilemma among the Greek and Turkish Cypriots over the course of time induced Türkiye to shelve a federal solution to the Cyprus issue and return to a pre-2002 two-state solution. The article also concludes that Türkiye was further prompted to take an independent course in the Eastern Mediterranean by the combination of a number of factors: the rapprochement between the AKP Government and nationalist elements in the country after the 2016 coup plot, the militarization of its foreign policy, Türkiyes perception that the West was in decline, the decreased credibility and thus leverage over Türkiye of EU political conditionality, Brussels shortcomings regarding a common security and foreign policy and the rise in Türkiyes military and economic capabilities.

 A main objective of this article is to examine the underlying reasons behind the collapse of the reunification talks on Cyprus aimed at a federal model. Another aim of the article is to analyze Türkiyes assertive policy in the Eastern Mediterranean. A major argument is that the disruption of the balance of power with respect to the Cyprus problem in favor of the Greek Cypriots after 2004 and the lack of a shared Cypriot identity were fundamental causes of the failure of the talks. The study also contends that the emergence of a siege mentality after the July 2016 coup plot in Türkiye, together with its economic and military strengthening, the rise of multi-polarity in international politics, and diminishing EU political sway in the country, incentivized Türkiye to pursue an active foreign policy agenda in the Eastern Mediterranean. This study concludes that the failure of long-standing negotiations to reach a federal settlement on the island and the comfortable position obtained by the Greek Cypriot Administration GCA in the negotiations vis-à-vis the Turkish side following the accession to the EU together with Türkiyes nationalist posture after 2016 and the deepening of the identity dilemma among the Greek and Turkish Cypriots over the course of time induced Türkiye to shelve a federal solution to the Cyprus issue and return to a pre-2002 two-state solution. The article also concludes that Türkiye was further prompted to take an independent course in the Eastern Mediterranean by the combination of a number of factors: the rapprochement between the AKP Government and nationalist elements in the country after the 2016 coup plot, the militarization of its foreign policy, Türkiyes perception that the West was in decline, the decreased credibility and thus leverage over Türkiye of EU political conditionality, Brussels shortcomings regarding a common security and foreign policy and the rise in Türkiyes military and economic capabilities.

 Bu makalenin ana amaçlarından birisi federal bir modeli hedefleyen Kıbrısın yeniden birleşme müzakerelerinin çökmesinin ardındaki temel nedenleri incelemektir. Makalenin başka bir amacı Türkiyenin Doğu Akdenizdeki etkin politikasını analiz etmektir. Makalenin temel argümanı 2004ten sonra Kıbrıs probleminde güç dengesinin Kıbrıslı Rumlar lehine bozulmasının ve ortak bir Kıbrıs kimliğinin eksikliğinin görüşmelerin başarısızlığının temel sebepleri olduğudur. Çalışma Temmuz 2016da Türkiyedeki darbe girişiminden sonra ortaya çıkan kuşatma mantalitesinin, Türkiyenin ekonomik ve askeri olarak güçlenmesinin, uluslararası politikada çok kutupluluğun ortaya çıkışının ve ülkede ABnin siyasi etkisinin azalmasının Türkiyeyi Doğu Akdenizde aktif bir dış politika izlemeye teşvik ettiğini ileri sürmektedir. Bu çalışma adada federal bir çözüme ulaşmak için uzun süredir devam eden müzakerelerin başarısızlığı ve Kıbrıs Rum Yönetiminin ABye katıldıktan sonra müzakerelerde Türkiyeye karşı rahat bir pozisyon elde etmesinin yanında 2016dan sonra Türkiyenin milliyetçi bir tutuma sahip olmasının ve zamanla Kıbrıs Türkleri ve Rumları arasında kimlik ikileminin derinleşmesinin Türkiyenin Kıbrıs meselesine federal bir çözümü rafa kaldırmasına ittiği ve onu 2002 öncesi iki devletli çözüme geri döndürdüğü sonucuna varmıştır. Makale, aynı zamanda, birkaç faktörün bir araya gelmesinin Doğu Akdenizde Türkiyenin bağımsız bir yola girmesine yol açtığı sonucuna varmaktadır : 2016 darbe girişiminden sonra AKP Hükümetiyle ülkedeki milliyetçi unsurlar arasındaki yakınlaşma, dış politikanın askerileşmesi, Türkiyenin Batının inişte olduğu konusundaki algısı, AB siyasi koşulluğunun azalan inandırıcılığı ve Türkiye üzerindeki azalan manivela gücü, Brükselin ortak bir güvenlik ve dış politika konusundaki eksikleri ve Türkiyenin askeri ve ekonomik yeteneklerindeki artış. Anahtar Kelimeler: Enerji, AB, Türk dış politikası, Kıbrıs.

Article Details

Türkiye’s Shifting Policies Toward the Cyprus Issue and the Eastern Mediterranean Dispute

Authors:

Mehmet Bardakçı

Publisher:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Journal:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Issue 76, pp.238-253

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2023

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288485

pISSN:

1302-1842

Energy

the EU

Turkish foreign policy

Cyprusenergy

the EU

Turkish foreign policy

Cyprus

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Mehmet Bardakçı

Publisher: Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Journal: Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Issue 76, pp.238-253

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 4/2023

Document Language: English

Document ID (Org No.): 2001288485

pISSN: 1302-1842

Issues

Authors:

Mehmet Bardakçı

Publisher:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Journal:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Issue 76, pp.238-253

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2023

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288485

pISSN:

1302-1842