Modified simple exponential smoothing

Guckan YAPAR

Article Details

Modified simple exponential smoothing

Authors:

Guckan YAPAR

Publisher:

Hacettepe University

Main Topics:

Mathematics

Journal:

Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 2018 Vol.47 Issue 3, pp.741-754

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

5/2018

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2000451963

Frequency:

Bimonthly

eISSN:

2651-477X

pISSN:

2651-477X

Abstract:

 


In this study, we propose a new exponential smoothing method, modified simple exponential smoothing (MSES) as an alternative to simple exponential smoothing (SES). Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, SES has some shortcomings that negatively affect theaccuracy of forecasts made using this method. For example, there is no agreed upon concensus on choosing an initial value and determining anoptimum smoothing parameter and these decisions greatly affect the forecasting accuracy of SES. The proposed method will help cope with these shortcomings. It is compared to SES on popular metrics that are commonly used for evaluating performance of forecasting techniques and is shown to have better performance. The two models are applied to the 1001 time series of the M-competition data simultaneously and their prediction accuracies are compared under various settings.

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Article Details

Modified simple exponential smoothing

Authors: Guckan YAPAR

Publisher: Hacettepe University

Main Topics: Mathematics

Journal: Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 2018 Vol.47 Issue 3, pp.741-754

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 5/2018

Document Language: English

Document ID (Org No.): 2000451963

Frequency: Bimonthly

eISSN: 2651-477X

pISSN: 2651-477X

Issues

Authors:

Guckan YAPAR

Publisher:

Hacettepe University

Main Topics:

Mathematics

Journal:

Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 2018 Vol.47 Issue 3, pp.741-754

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

5/2018

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2000451963

Frequency:

Bimonthly

eISSN:

2651-477X

pISSN:

2651-477X