Public expenditures and external debt relationship under the effect of inflation and exchange rate: Symmetric and asymmetric causality analysis for Türkiye

Çiğdem Çadırcı; Levent Kaya

Article Details

Public expenditures and external debt relationship under the effect of inflation and exchange rate: Symmetric and asymmetric causality analysis for Türkiye

Authors:

Çiğdem Çadırcı | Levent Kaya

Publisher:

Afyon Kocatepe University

Main Topics:

Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Journal:

Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.222-237

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

12/2024

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001316032

pISSN:

1302-1966

Keywords:

Abstract:

 Public expenditures and external debt are two closely linked concepts that have a significant impact on a countrys economy and overall financial stability. Analyzing the relationship between public expenditures and external debt is crucial both for understanding the economic stability of a country and for understanding the potential risks and consequences of excessive spending and borrowing. In addition, the effects of financial factors should be taken into account when examining the relationship between public expenditures and external debt. In the study, the relationship between public expenditures and external debt in Türkiye with quarterly data for the years 2006-2023 was examined using econometric methods. According to the results obtained from the analyses in which inflation and exchange rate were also included to measure price and monetary effects, a long-term relationship was found between the variables. According to both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests, no causality relationship was found between public expenditures and external debt. In the study, it was seen that inflation and exchange rate factors were effective on public expenditures and external debt in Türkiye. It is crucial to consider the impact of pricing and exchange rate fluctuations in order to maintain financial discipline effectively.

 Public expenditures and external debt are two closely linked concepts that have a significant impact on a countrys economy and overall financial stability. Analyzing the relationship between public expenditures and external debt is crucial both for understanding the economic stability of a country and for understanding the potential risks and consequences of excessive spending and borrowing. In addition, the effects of financial factors should be taken into account when examining the relationship between public expenditures and external debt. In the study, the relationship between public expenditures and external debt in Türkiye with quarterly data for the years 2006-2023 was examined using econometric methods. According to the results obtained from the analyses in which inflation and exchange rate were also included to measure price and monetary effects, a long-term relationship was found between the variables. According to both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests, no causality relationship was found between public expenditures and external debt. In the study, it was seen that inflation and exchange rate factors were effective on public expenditures and external debt in Türkiye. It is crucial to consider the impact of pricing and exchange rate fluctuations in order to maintain financial discipline effectively.

 Public expenditures and external debt are two closely linked concepts that have a significant impact on a countrys economy and overall financial stability. Analyzing the relationship between public expenditures and external debt is crucial both for understanding the economic stability of a country and for understanding the potential risks and consequences of excessive spending and borrowing. In addition, the effects of financial factors should be taken into account when examining the relationship between public expenditures and external debt. In the study, the relationship between public expenditures and external debt in Türkiye with quarterly data for the years 2006-2023 was examined using econometric methods. According to the results obtained from the analyses in which inflation and exchange rate were also included to measure price and monetary effects, a long-term relationship was found between the variables. According to both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests, no causality relationship was found between public expenditures and external debt. In the study, it was seen that inflation and exchange rate factors were effective on public expenditures and external debt in Türkiye. It is crucial to consider the impact of pricing and exchange rate fluctuations in order to maintain financial discipline effectively.

 Kamu harcamaları ve dış borçlanma, bir ülkenin ekonomisi ve genel finansal istikrarı üzerinde önemli etkisi olan, birbiriyle bağlantılı iki kavramdır. Kamu harcamaları ile dış borç arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi, hem bir ülkenin ekonomik istikrarının anlaşılması hem de aşırı harcama ve borçlanmanın potansiyel risklerini ve sonuçlarını anlamamız açısından çok önemlidir. Ayrıca kamu harcamaları ile dış borç ilişkisi incelenirken finansal faktörlerin etkisi de dikkate alınmalıdır. Çalışmada Türkiyede 2006-2023 yıllarına ait çeyreklik verilerle kamu harcamaları ve dış borç ilişkisi ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Fiyat ve parasal etkileri ölçmek için enflasyon ve döviz kurunun da dahil edildiği analizlerden elde edilen sonuçlara göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Hem simetrik hem de asimetrik nedensellik testlerine göre kamu harcamaları ile dış borç arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir. Çalışmada Türkiyede enflasyon ve döviz kuru faktörlerinin, kamu harcamaları ve dış borçlanmada etkili olduğu görülmüştür. Elde edilen bulgular, mali disiplinin iyi yönetilebilmesi için fiyat ve döviz kuru dalgalanmalarından kaynaklı etkilerin göz ardı edilmemesi gerektiğini göstermiştir.

Article Details

Public expenditures and external debt relationship under the effect of inflation and exchange rate: Symmetric and asymmetric causality analysis for Türkiye

Authors:

Çiğdem Çadırcı | Levent Kaya

Publisher:

Afyon Kocatepe University

Main Topics:

Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Journal:

Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.222-237

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

12/2024

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001316032

pISSN:

1302-1966

External Debt

Public Expenditures

ARDL Bound Test

Asymmetric CausalityDış Borçlanma

Kamu Harcamaları

ARDL Sınır Testi

Asimetrik Nedensellik

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Çiğdem Çadırcı | Levent Kaya

Publisher: Afyon Kocatepe University

Main Topics: Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Journal: Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.222-237

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 12/2024

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001316032

pISSN: 1302-1966

Issues

Authors:

Çiğdem Çadırcı | Levent Kaya

Publisher:

Afyon Kocatepe University

Main Topics:

Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Journal:

Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.222-237

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

12/2024

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001316032

pISSN:

1302-1966