The Relationship between Bank Loans and the Current Deficit: Asymmetric Causesity Analysis for Turkey

Levent Sezal

Article Details

The Relationship between Bank Loans and the Current Deficit: Asymmetric Causesity Analysis for Turkey

Authors:

Levent Sezal

Publisher:

Selcuk University

Journal:

Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 50, pp.34-44

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288917

pISSN:

2667-4750

Keywords:

Abstract:

 Country economies are faced with many macroeconomic problems. Where problems are thought to be solved, other problems arise. The Turkish economy has been struggling with macroeconomic problems such as inflation, current account deficit, unemployment, exchange rate, balance of payments, insufficient savings, excessively high credit volume for years. It is absolutely necessary to seriously examine each of these problems separately. However, the current account deficit is a problem that has not been solved for a long time and has become chronic. One of the most important determinants of the current account deficit is bank loans. This study aims to test the relationship between bank loans and current account deficit in Turkey. The series used in the study, the Extended Dickey Fuller ADF, Philips Perron PP unit root tests, as well as the structural break Zivot-Andrews unit root of the related series were investigated. Whether or not there is causality between the variables, and if there is a causal relationship, the directions were analyzed using the Toda-Yamamoto method. According to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between the loan volume and current account deficit variables at the 5 significance level.

 Country economies are faced with many macroeconomic problems. Where problems are thought to be solved, other problems arise. The Turkish economy has been struggling with macroeconomic problems such as inflation, current account deficit, unemployment, exchange rate, balance of payments, insufficient savings, excessively high credit volume for years. It is absolutely necessary to seriously examine each of these problems separately. However, the current account deficit is a problem that has not been solved for a long time and has become chronic. One of the most important determinants of the current account deficit is bank loans. This study aims to test the relationship between bank loans and current account deficit in Turkey. The series used in the study, the Extended Dickey Fuller ADF, Philips Perron PP unit root tests, as well as the structural break Zivot-Andrews unit root of the related series were investigated. Whether or not there is causality between the variables, and if there is a causal relationship, the directions were analyzed using the Toda-Yamamoto method. According to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between the loan volume and current account deficit variables at the 5 significance level.

 Country economies are faced with many macroeconomic problems. Where problems are thought to be solved, other problems arise. The Turkish economy has been struggling with macroeconomic problems such as inflation, current account deficit, unemployment, exchange rate, balance of payments, insufficient savings, excessively high credit volume for years. It is absolutely necessary to seriously examine each of these problems separately. However, the current account deficit is a problem that has not been solved for a long time and has become chronic. One of the most important determinants of the current account deficit is bank loans. This study aims to test the relationship between bank loans and current account deficit in Turkey. The series used in the study, the Extended Dickey Fuller ADF, Philips Perron PP unit root tests, as well as the structural break Zivot-Andrews unit root of the related series were investigated. Whether or not there is causality between the variables, and if there is a causal relationship, the directions were analyzed using the Toda-Yamamoto method. According to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between the loan volume and current account deficit variables at the 5 significance level.

 Ülke ekonomileri birçok makroekonomik sorunla karşı karşıya kalmaktadırlar. Sorunların çözüldüğü düşünüldüğü noktalarda, başka sorunlar ortaya çıkmaktadır. Türkiye ekonomisi, enflasyon, cari açık, işsizlik, döviz kuru, ödemeler dengesi, tasarrufların yetersizliği, aşırı yükselen kredi hacmi gibi makroekonomik sorunlarla yıllardır mücadele etmektedir. Bu sorunların her biri ayrı ayrı ciddi düzeyde irdelenmesi muhakkak gereklidir. Ancak cari açık, uzun süredir çözülememiş, kronik hale gelmiş bir sorundur. Cari açığın en önemli belirleyicilerinden bir tanesi ise bankacılık kesimi tarafından kullandırılan kredileridir. Bu çalışma, Türkiyede banka kredileri ile cari açık arasındaki ilişkiyi test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan seriler, Genişletilmiş Dickey Fuller ADF, Philips Perron PP birim kök testlerinin yanı sıra yapısal kırılmaları da dikkate alan Zivot-Andrews birim kök testiyle serilerin durağanlık dereceleri araştırılmıştır. Seriler arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisi olup olmadığı, nedensellik varsa yönlerinin tespit edilmesi için karşılıklı olarak Toda-Yamamoto yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, 5 anlamlılık seviyesinde kredi hacmi ve cari açık değişkenleri arasında karşılıklı olarak nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Article Details

The Relationship between Bank Loans and the Current Deficit: Asymmetric Causesity Analysis for Turkey

Authors:

Levent Sezal

Publisher:

Selcuk University

Journal:

Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 50, pp.34-44

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288917

pISSN:

2667-4750

Current Account Deficit

Bank credits

Toda-Yamamoto Causality TestBanka Kredileri

Cari Açık

Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi

Issues

Article Details

The Relationship between Bank Loans and the Current Deficit: Asymmetric Causesity Analysis for Turkey

Authors: Levent Sezal

Publisher: Selcuk University

Journal: Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 50, pp.34-44

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 4/2023

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001288917

pISSN: 2667-4750

Current Account Deficit

Bank credits

Toda-Yamamoto Causality TestBanka Kredileri

Cari Açık

Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi

Issues

Authors:

Levent Sezal

Publisher:

Selcuk University

Journal:

Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 50, pp.34-44

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

4/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288917

pISSN:

2667-4750