TURKEY'S TRADE WITH EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES AND THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS WITH THE GRAVITY MODEL

Murat Mere

Article Details

TURKEY'S TRADE WITH EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES AND THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS WITH THE GRAVITY MODEL

Authors:

Murat Mere

Publisher:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Main Topics:

Ekonomi

Journal:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 10, pp.54-61

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

3/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001281709

pISSN:

2791-9579

Keywords:

Abstract:

 The process started with the application for full membership in 1959 and with the entry into force of the Ankara Agreement in 1963 when Turkeys relationship with the European Union became official. However, Turkey has not been a full member of the Union since then. Despite being outside the Union, European Union countries have an essential share in Turkeys international trade. In the study, the international trade relationship between Turkey and Union member countries test by using the gravity model. Two different models create in which Turkeys import and export values to the Union countries dependent variables. The countries income levels, distance from each other, and the 2008 financial crisis dummy variable are independent variables. According to the analysis results, the economic size of the countries in both models has a statistically significant and positive effect on Turkeys exports and imports. Distance and economic crisis dummy variables have a statistically significant negative effect on Turkeys exports and imports. In addition, it has been determined that the increase in the incomes of the European Union countries has a higher effect on both exports and imports of Turkey.

 The process started with the application for full membership in 1959 and with the entry into force of the Ankara Agreement in 1963 when Turkeys relationship with the European Union became official. However, Turkey has not been a full member of the Union since then. Despite being outside the Union, European Union countries have an essential share in Turkeys international trade. In the study, the international trade relationship between Turkey and Union member countries test by using the gravity model. Two different models create in which Turkeys import and export values to the Union countries dependent variables. The countries income levels, distance from each other, and the 2008 financial crisis dummy variable are independent variables. According to the analysis results, the economic size of the countries in both models has a statistically significant and positive effect on Turkeys exports and imports. Distance and economic crisis dummy variables have a statistically significant negative effect on Turkeys exports and imports. In addition, it has been determined that the increase in the incomes of the European Union countries has a higher effect on both exports and imports of Turkey.

 The process started with the application for full membership in 1959 and with the entry into force of the Ankara Agreement in 1963 when Turkeys relationship with the European Union became official. However, Turkey has not been a full member of the Union since then. Despite being outside the Union, European Union countries have an essential share in Turkeys international trade. In the study, the international trade relationship between Turkey and Union member countries test by using the gravity model. Two different models create in which Turkeys import and export values to the Union countries dependent variables. The countries income levels, distance from each other, and the 2008 financial crisis dummy variable are independent variables. According to the analysis results, the economic size of the countries in both models has a statistically significant and positive effect on Turkeys exports and imports. Distance and economic crisis dummy variables have a statistically significant negative effect on Turkeys exports and imports. In addition, it has been determined that the increase in the incomes of the European Union countries has a higher effect on both exports and imports of Turkey.

 1959 yılında tam üyelik başvurusu ile başlayan süreç 1963 tarihinde Ankara anlaşmasının yürürlüğe girmesiyle Türkiyenin Avrupa Birliği ile olan ilişkisi resmiyet kazanmıştır. Ancak o tarihten günümüze kadar geçen süre de Türkiye Birliğe tam üye olamamıştır. Birliğin dışında olmasına rağmen Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri Türkiyenin uluslararası ticaretinde önemli bir paya sahiptir. Çalışmada Türkiye ve Birliğe üye ülkeler arasındaki uluslararası ticaret ilişkisi çekim modelinden faydalanılarak test edilmiştir. Türkiyenin Birlik ülkelerine gerçekleştirdiği ithalat ve ihracat değerlerinin bağımlı değişken olduğu iki farklı model oluşturulmuştur. Ülkelerin gelir seviyeleri, birbirlerine olan uzaklıkları ve 2008 tarihinde gerçekleşen finansal krizin Türkiyenin dış ticareti üzerine etkilerini görebilmek için bağımsız değişken olarak kullanılmışlardır. Uygulama sonuçlarına göre, oluşturulan her iki modelde de ülkelerin ekonomik büyüklükleri Türkiyenin ihracat ve ithalatını istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Türkiyenin ihracatı ve ithalatı üzerinde mesafe ile ekonomik kriz kukla değişkenleri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönde etkiye sahiptir. Ayrıca Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinin gelirlerindeki artışların Türkiyenin hem ihracatı hem de İthalatı üzerindeki etkisinin daha yüksek oranda olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Article Details

TURKEY'S TRADE WITH EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES AND THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS WITH THE GRAVITY MODEL

Authors:

Murat Mere

Publisher:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Main Topics:

Ekonomi

Journal:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 10, pp.54-61

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

3/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001281709

pISSN:

2791-9579

Panel Data

Turkey

European Union

Gravity Model

International Trade

Panel Veri

Türkiye

Avrupa Birliği

Çekim Modeli

Uluslararası Ticaret

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Murat Mere

Publisher: Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Main Topics: Ekonomi

Journal: Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 10, pp.54-61

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 3/2023

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001281709

pISSN: 2791-9579

Issues

Authors:

Murat Mere

Publisher:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Main Topics:

Ekonomi

Journal:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 10, pp.54-61

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

3/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001281709

pISSN:

2791-9579