Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria

Abe  A. O.; Q. A. Adeniji; Rabiu   J. A.; Adegboyega   O.; Raheem  I. O.; Rasaki  M.G.; Sada  S. M.; Fidelis  L.

doi:10.30723/ijp.v20i2.989

Article Details

Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria

Authors:

Abe A. O. | Q. A. Adeniji | Rabiu J. A. | Adegboyega O. | Raheem I. O. | Rasaki M.G. | Sada S. M. | Fidelis L.

Publisher:

University of Baghdad

Journal:

Iraqi Journal of Physics Vol.20 Issue 2, pp.64-77

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

1/2022

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001369258

pISSN:

2664-5548

DOI:

10.30723/ijp.v20i2.989

Keywords:

Abstract:

 Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an upward trend in the annual rainfall amount received in Gombe over the last 31 years at a rate of 3.98 mm/year. The results for the forecast shows that the annual rainfall to be received in Gombe continues in a range above the mean which serves as an indication that the decade will experience more wet years than dry years. The study concludes that the pattern of rainfall in Gombe is a cyclic pattern. The current trend may affect soil moisture, flooding and subsequently lead to ecological change. The study recommends that inhabitants of the study areas should plan their cropping season based on climatic information of their area.

Article Details

Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria

Authors:

Abe A. O. | Q. A. Adeniji | Rabiu J. A. | Adegboyega O. | Raheem I. O. | Rasaki M.G. | Sada S. M. | Fidelis L.

Publisher:

University of Baghdad

Journal:

Iraqi Journal of Physics Vol.20 Issue 2, pp.64-77

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

1/2022

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001369258

pISSN:

2664-5548

DOI:

10.30723/ijp.v20i2.989

Rainfall pattern

Machine Learning

Gombe

ARIMA

SPI

Issues

Article Details

Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria

Authors: Abe A. O. | Q. A. Adeniji | Rabiu J. A. | Adegboyega O. | Raheem I. O. | Rasaki M.G. | Sada S. M. | Fidelis L.

Publisher: University of Baghdad

Journal: Iraqi Journal of Physics Vol.20 Issue 2, pp.64-77

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 1/2022

Document Language: English

Document ID (Org No.): 2001369258

pISSN: 2664-5548

DOI: 10.30723/ijp.v20i2.989

Rainfall pattern

Machine Learning

Gombe

ARIMA

SPI

Issues

Authors:

Abe A. O. | Q. A. Adeniji | Rabiu J. A. | Adegboyega O. | Raheem I. O. | Rasaki M.G. | Sada S. M. | Fidelis L.

Publisher:

University of Baghdad

Journal:

Iraqi Journal of Physics Vol.20 Issue 2, pp.64-77

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

1/2022

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001369258

pISSN:

2664-5548

DOI:

10.30723/ijp.v20i2.989