Cash Risk Analysis from Accounting Perspective with Hidden Markov Model: A Study in BIST Textile, Wearing Apparel and Leather Sector

Murat Kurtlar

Article Details

Cash Risk Analysis from Accounting Perspective with Hidden Markov Model: A Study in BIST Textile, Wearing Apparel and Leather Sector

Authors:

Murat Kurtlar

Publisher:

Anadolu University

Main Topics:

Finansal Muhasebe

Journal:

Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.25 Issue 3, pp.1-26

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001358793

pISSN:

2667-8683

Keywords:

Abstract:

 In this study, Hidden Markov Model HMM and K-Means cluster analysis are applied to analyze cash risk using cash flow statement data of companies in Borsa Istanbul BIST Textıle, Wearıng Apparel and Leather sector for the years 2021-2023. The aim of the GMM model is to analyze the variability in cash flows of companies and estimate possible cash shortages. In addition, companies are divided into three classes according to cash flows provided by operating, investment and financing activities using K-Means cluster analysis and the differences between these classes are examined. The study includes the concept of hidden potential cash risk, which is used for the first time in the literature. This concept is used to define situations where companies carry hidden potential risks in their cash flows without experiencing any externally visible financial problems. The study analyzes the cash flow risks of companies within the framework of this new concept and provides an in-depth examination of their financial performance. The study reveals that the classification of companies according to their cash flow risks in the period covering the years 2021-2023 shows that some companies have changed in their risk levels. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that many companies such as ATEKS, ARSAN, BRKO, DAGI have in the class with no cash risk in 2021, while companies such as BLCYT, BOSSA, DERIM have in the class with high cash risk. In 2022, DERIM and ISSEN moved to the class with no cash risk, while YATAS and KORDS shifted to a higher risk class. In 2023, some previously high-risk companies such as BLCYT, BOSSA, DERIM have been determined to be in the class with no cash risk.

 In this study, Hidden Markov Model HMM and K-Means cluster analysis are applied to analyze cash risk using cash flow statement data of companies in Borsa Istanbul BIST Textıle, Wearıng Apparel and Leather sector for the years 2021-2023. The aim of the GMM model is to analyze the variability in cash flows of companies and estimate possible cash shortages. In addition, companies are divided into three classes according to cash flows provided by operating, investment and financing activities using K-Means cluster analysis and the differences between these classes are examined. The study includes the concept of hidden potential cash risk, which is used for the first time in the literature. This concept is used to define situations where companies carry hidden potential risks in their cash flows without experiencing any externally visible financial problems. The study analyzes the cash flow risks of companies within the framework of this new concept and provides an in-depth examination of their financial performance. The study reveals that the classification of companies according to their cash flow risks in the period covering the years 2021-2023 shows that some companies have changed in their risk levels. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that many companies such as ATEKS, ARSAN, BRKO, DAGI have in the class with no cash risk in 2021, while companies such as BLCYT, BOSSA, DERIM have in the class with high cash risk. In 2022, DERIM and ISSEN moved to the class with no cash risk, while YATAS and KORDS shifted to a higher risk class. In 2023, some previously high-risk companies such as BLCYT, BOSSA, DERIM have been determined to be in the class with no cash risk.

 In this study, Hidden Markov Model HMM and K-Means cluster analysis are applied to analyze cash risk using cash flow statement data of companies in Borsa Istanbul BIST Textıle, Wearıng Apparel and Leather sector for the years 2021-2023. The aim of the GMM model is to analyze the variability in cash flows of companies and estimate possible cash shortages. In addition, companies are divided into three classes according to cash flows provided by operating, investment and financing activities using K-Means cluster analysis and the differences between these classes are examined. The study includes the concept of hidden potential cash risk, which is used for the first time in the literature. This concept is used to define situations where companies carry hidden potential risks in their cash flows without experiencing any externally visible financial problems. The study analyzes the cash flow risks of companies within the framework of this new concept and provides an in-depth examination of their financial performance. The study reveals that the classification of companies according to their cash flow risks in the period covering the years 2021-2023 shows that some companies have changed in their risk levels. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that many companies such as ATEKS, ARSAN, BRKO, DAGI have in the class with no cash risk in 2021, while companies such as BLCYT, BOSSA, DERIM have in the class with high cash risk. In 2022, DERIM and ISSEN moved to the class with no cash risk, while YATAS and KORDS shifted to a higher risk class. In 2023, some previously high-risk companies such as BLCYT, BOSSA, DERIM have been determined to be in the class with no cash risk.

 Bu çalışmada, Borsa İstanbulda BIST Tekstil, Hazır Giyim ve Deri sektöründe faaliyet gösteren şirketlerin 20212023 yıllarını kapsayan dönemine ait bağımsız denetim raporlarında yer alan nakit akış tablosu verileri esas alınarak, kurumsal düzeyde nakit riski dinamiklerinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, gizli durumların zaman serisi içerisindeki geçişlerini modellemek üzere Gizli Markov Modeli GMM kullanılmış; elde edilen çıktılar ise benzer nakit risk profillerine sahip şirket gruplarını belirlemek amacıyla K-Means kümeleme algoritmasıyla analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada, literatürde ilk kez kullanılan gizli potansiyel nakit sıkıntısı2 kavramına yer verilmiştir. Çalışma, şirketlerin nakit akış risklerini bu yeni kavram çerçevesinde analiz ederek, finansal performanslarının derinlemesine incelenmesini kapsamaktadır. Çalışma, 2021-2023 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde şirketlerin nakit akış risklerine göre sınıflandırılması bazı şirketlerin risk seviyelerinde değişim gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Analiz sonucunda, 2021 yılında nakit riskinin olmadığı sınıfta ATEKS, ARSAN, BRKO, DAGI gibi birçok şirketin, yüksek derece nakit riski bulunan sınıfta BLCYT, BOSSA, DERIM gibi şirketlerin yer aldığı tespit edilmiştir. 2022 yılında DERIM ve ISSEN, nakit riskinin olmadığı sınıfa geçerken, YATAS ve KORDS daha yüksek risk sınıfına kaymıştır. 2023 yılında ise BLCYT, BOSSA, DERIM gibi önceden yüksek riskli olan bazı şirketler, nakit riskinin olmadığı sınıfta yer aldığı belirlenmiştir.

Article Details

Cash Risk Analysis from Accounting Perspective with Hidden Markov Model: A Study in BIST Textile, Wearing Apparel and Leather Sector

Authors:

Murat Kurtlar

Publisher:

Anadolu University

Main Topics:

Finansal Muhasebe

Journal:

Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.25 Issue 3, pp.1-26

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001358793

pISSN:

2667-8683

Cash flow analysis

Hidden Markov Model

hidden (potential) cash risk

cash flow statementNakit Akışı Analizi

Gizli Markov Modeli

Gizli Nakit Riski

Nakit Akış Tablosu

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Murat Kurtlar

Publisher: Anadolu University

Main Topics: Finansal Muhasebe

Journal: Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.25 Issue 3, pp.1-26

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 9/2025

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001358793

pISSN: 2667-8683

Issues

Authors:

Murat Kurtlar

Publisher:

Anadolu University

Main Topics:

Finansal Muhasebe

Journal:

Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.25 Issue 3, pp.1-26

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2025

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001358793

pISSN:

2667-8683