Application of FAO-AquaCrop model in evaluating climate change impact on wheat productivity in the rainfed Zaer area

Oumaima Iben Halima; Hamza Iaaich; Abdelmajid Kerfati; Rrachid Moussadek; Naaman Mazen; Ihab Jnad

Article Details

Application of FAO-AquaCrop model in evaluating climate change impact on wheat productivity in the rainfed Zaer area

Authors:

Oumaima Iben Halima | Hamza Iaaich | Abdelmajid Kerfati | Rrachid Moussadek | Naaman Mazen | Ihab Jnad

Publisher:

INRA

Journal:

African and Mediterranean Agricultural Journal - Al Awamia Issue 133, pp.170-187

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

3/2022

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001843488

pISSN:

2658-9184

Keywords:

Abstract:

 Accurate crop development modelling is important in planning rational use of water resources and crop management, along with evaluating the effects of climate change on crop productivity and predicting yields. This study aims at modelling winter wheat productivity under different climatic scenarios and models, in a Moroccan rainfed agriculture site using the FAO AquaCrop model. The study site was a one-hectare experiment plot located in the Marchouch plateau in the North-western Morocco. The model was calibrated using field parameters of the crop growing cycle, the soil characteristics, the crop management and the observed yield for a period covering three cropping cycles (from 2014/2015 to 2016/2017) using daily rainfall and temperature data. The calibrated model was then used to simulate wheat productivity in the study site for short-term (2020-2030) and medium-term periods (2040-2050) compared to a reference (1985-2005). Two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered for three General circulation models (CNRM, EC-EARTH, and GFDL) to derive the average model outputs with focus on the crop yield, crop growing cycle and evapotranspiration. The results showed a good model calibration, with coefficient of determination R2 of 0.84, Nash-Sutcliffe indicator of 0.71 and Willmott index of 0.94. Simulations showed that under RCP 4.5 a short-term yield drop of 5.94%, a medium-term crop cycle decrease of 15 days and evapotranspiration reduction of 20mm. Meanwhile, the model predicted under RCP 8.5 a medium-term yield drop of 12.9%, a crop cycle decrease of 13 days and evapotranspiration reduction of 46mm. Overall, simulation results showed that AquaCrop model is suitable for simulating the effects of water and climatic stress on crop productivity in rainfed agricultural areas, which could help decision making in terms of water productivity and crop adaptation under future climate trends in the semiarid conditions.

Article Details

Application of FAO-AquaCrop model in evaluating climate change impact on wheat productivity in the rainfed Zaer area

Authors:

Oumaima Iben Halima | Hamza Iaaich | Abdelmajid Kerfati | Rrachid Moussadek | Naaman Mazen | Ihab Jnad

Publisher:

INRA

Journal:

African and Mediterranean Agricultural Journal - Al Awamia Issue 133, pp.170-187

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

3/2022

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001843488

pISSN:

2658-9184

Crop Modelling

Climate change

Wheat

FAO-AquaCrop

Marchouch

Morocco

Modélisation des cultures

Changement climatique

Blé

AquaCrop- FAO

Maroc

Issues

Article Details

Authors: Oumaima Iben Halima | Hamza Iaaich | Abdelmajid Kerfati | Rrachid Moussadek | Naaman Mazen | Ihab Jnad

Publisher: INRA

Journal: African and Mediterranean Agricultural Journal - Al Awamia Issue 133, pp.170-187

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 3/2022

Document Language: English

Document ID (Org No.): 2001843488

pISSN: 2658-9184

Issues

Authors:

Oumaima Iben Halima | Hamza Iaaich | Abdelmajid Kerfati | Rrachid Moussadek | Naaman Mazen | Ihab Jnad

Publisher:

INRA

Journal:

African and Mediterranean Agricultural Journal - Al Awamia Issue 133, pp.170-187

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

3/2022

Document Language:

English

Document ID (Org No.):

2001843488

pISSN:

2658-9184