Determination of Future Trends of Sugar in Turkey Through Time Series Analysis

Kurtuluş Merdan

Article Details

Determination of Future Trends of Sugar in Turkey Through Time Series Analysis

Authors:

Kurtuluş Merdan

Publisher:

Hacettepe University

Main Topics:

Tarım Ekonomisi

Journal:

Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.41 Issue 3, pp.497-532

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001299529

pISSN:

1301-8752

Keywords:

Abstract:

 This study aims to reveal the current status of sugar market in Turkey and to provide future predictions for sugar markets. Exponential Correction Method, one of the time series analyses, was used in determining future predictions. Secondary data for time series analysis were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute TURKSTAT, the websites or databases of the Turkish Sugar Factories Joint Stock Company TŞFAŞ. Within this context, five-year future predictions regarding sugar markets were developed for beet cultivation area, amount of processed beet, number of sugar beet producers, production amount and yield values, sugar production and consumption, export and import amounts. According to the findings of the study, it is predicted that sugar beet cultivation areas, the amount of processed beet and sugar beet production will increase, the number of sugar beet producers and yield will decrease, and the production, consumption, import and export amount of sugar will increase in the next five years 2022-2027. Predictions regarding the supply-demand balance in sugar suggest that the balance will shift towards supply, and that this shift will stem from an increase in exports, not from an increase in production, and that foreign-source dependency for sugar will increase. Reduction of input costs, elimination of irregularities in prices through various factors, improvement of support to increase the competition of Turkseker with private companies, and minimization of the quota application in sugar beet should be ensured to reduce foreign-source dependency in sugar production.

 This study aims to reveal the current status of sugar market in Turkey and to provide future predictions for sugar markets. Exponential Correction Method, one of the time series analyses, was used in determining future predictions. Secondary data for time series analysis were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute TURKSTAT, the websites or databases of the Turkish Sugar Factories Joint Stock Company TŞFAŞ. Within this context, five-year future predictions regarding sugar markets were developed for beet cultivation area, amount of processed beet, number of sugar beet producers, production amount and yield values, sugar production and consumption, export and import amounts. According to the findings of the study, it is predicted that sugar beet cultivation areas, the amount of processed beet and sugar beet production will increase, the number of sugar beet producers and yield will decrease, and the production, consumption, import and export amount of sugar will increase in the next five years 2022-2027. Predictions regarding the supply-demand balance in sugar suggest that the balance will shift towards supply, and that this shift will stem from an increase in exports, not from an increase in production, and that foreign-source dependency for sugar will increase. Reduction of input costs, elimination of irregularities in prices through various factors, improvement of support to increase the competition of Turkseker with private companies, and minimization of the quota application in sugar beet should be ensured to reduce foreign-source dependency in sugar production.

 This study aims to reveal the current status of sugar market in Turkey and to provide future predictions for sugar markets. Exponential Correction Method, one of the time series analyses, was used in determining future predictions. Secondary data for time series analysis were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute TURKSTAT, the websites or databases of the Turkish Sugar Factories Joint Stock Company TŞFAŞ. Within this context, five-year future predictions regarding sugar markets were developed for beet cultivation area, amount of processed beet, number of sugar beet producers, production amount and yield values, sugar production and consumption, export and import amounts. According to the findings of the study, it is predicted that sugar beet cultivation areas, the amount of processed beet and sugar beet production will increase, the number of sugar beet producers and yield will decrease, and the production, consumption, import and export amount of sugar will increase in the next five years 2022-2027. Predictions regarding the supply-demand balance in sugar suggest that the balance will shift towards supply, and that this shift will stem from an increase in exports, not from an increase in production, and that foreign-source dependency for sugar will increase. Reduction of input costs, elimination of irregularities in prices through various factors, improvement of support to increase the competition of Turkseker with private companies, and minimization of the quota application in sugar beet should be ensured to reduce foreign-source dependency in sugar production.

 Bu çalışma ile Türkiyede şeker piyasasının mevcut durumunu ortaya koymak, şeker piyasaları için gelecek öngörülerinde bulunmak amaçlanmaktadır. Gelecek öngörülerinin tespiti için zaman serisi analizlerinden Üstel Düzeltme Yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Zaman serileri analizi için ikincil veriler Türkiye İstatistik Kurumundan TÜİK, Türkiye Şeker Fabrikaları Anonim Şirketinin TŞFAŞ internet siteleri veya veri tabanlarından elde edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda şeker piyasalarına ait pancar ekim alanı, işlenen pancar miktarı, şeker pancarı üretici sayısı, üretim miktarı ve verim değerleri, şekerin üretimi tüketim, ihracat ve ithalat miktarları için beş yıllık gelecek öngörüleri oluşturulmuştur. Araştırma bulgularına göre gelecek beş yıllık süreçte 2022-2027 Türkiyede şeker pancarı ekim alanlarının, işlenen pancar miktarının ve şeker pancarı üretim miktarlarının artacağı üretici sayısının ve verimin azalacağı, şekerin üretim, tüketim, ithalat ve ihracat miktarının artacağı öngörülmektedir. Şekerdeki Arz-Talep denge öngörülerinde ise dengenin arz yönüne kayacağı, bu kaymanın da üretim artışından değil, ihracat artışından kaynaklanacağı, şekerde ise dışa bağlılığın artacağı düşünülmektedir. Şeker üretiminde dışa bağımlığı azaltabilmek için girdi maliyetlerinin düşürülmesi, fiyattaki düzensizliğin çeşitli faktörlerle giderilmesi, Türk şekerin özel firmalarla rekabetinin artırılması amacıyla desteklerin iyileştirilmesi, şeker pancarında kota uygulamasının en asgariye indirilmesi sağlanmalıdır.

Article Details

Determination of Future Trends of Sugar in Turkey Through Time Series Analysis

Authors:

Kurtuluş Merdan

Publisher:

Hacettepe University

Main Topics:

Tarım Ekonomisi

Journal:

Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.41 Issue 3, pp.497-532

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001299529

pISSN:

1301-8752

şeker pancarı

Türkşeker

çift üssel düzeltme

Issues

Article Details

Determination of Future Trends of Sugar in Turkey Through Time Series Analysis

Authors: Kurtuluş Merdan

Publisher: Hacettepe University

Main Topics: Tarım Ekonomisi

Journal: Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.41 Issue 3, pp.497-532

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 9/2023

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001299529

pISSN: 1301-8752

şeker pancarı

Türkşeker

çift üssel düzeltme

Issues

Authors:

Kurtuluş Merdan

Publisher:

Hacettepe University

Main Topics:

Tarım Ekonomisi

Journal:

Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.41 Issue 3, pp.497-532

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2023

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001299529

pISSN:

1301-8752