The Relationship Between Barro Misery Index and Poverty in Turkey: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Analysis

Yaşar Turna

Article Details

The Relationship Between Barro Misery Index and Poverty in Turkey: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Analysis

Authors:

Yaşar Turna

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri | Kalkınma Ekonomisi - Makro | Refah Ekonomisi

Journal:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.31 Issue 3, pp.623-632

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2024

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001328214

pISSN:

1302-0064

Keywords:

Abstract:

 The 2008 crisis, which was the last crisis experienced in the world, affected Turkey negatively as well as all countries. In the post-crisis period, poverty rates in Turkey increased, welfare levels decreased, and economic discontent increased with increases in inflation and unemployment levels. This situation is expressed by the misery index, also known as the discontent index in the economy. The misery index was first proposed by Arthur Okun and later developed by Robert Barro. Barro misery index increases when unemployment, inflation and interest rates increase, and decreases when the growth rate increases. The misery index is also important in terms of showing the level of welfare in a society. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the relationships between Barro misery index and poverty in Turkey between 2006 and 2022. In this context, the relationships between the variables were analyzed with the Toda-Yamamoto causality test in accordance with the results of the unit root tests. According to the results of the causality test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between poverty and Barro misery index. Key Words: Poverty, Misery İndex, Welfare Level JEL Classification: I31, I32, O11.

 The 2008 crisis, which was the last crisis experienced in the world, affected Turkey negatively as well as all countries. In the post-crisis period, poverty rates in Turkey increased, welfare levels decreased, and economic discontent increased with increases in inflation and unemployment levels. This situation is expressed by the misery index, also known as the discontent index in the economy. The misery index was first proposed by Arthur Okun and later developed by Robert Barro. Barro misery index increases when unemployment, inflation and interest rates increase, and decreases when the growth rate increases. The misery index is also important in terms of showing the level of welfare in a society. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the relationships between Barro misery index and poverty in Turkey between 2006 and 2022. In this context, the relationships between the variables were analyzed with the Toda-Yamamoto causality test in accordance with the results of the unit root tests. According to the results of the causality test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between poverty and Barro misery index. Key Words: Poverty, Misery İndex, Welfare Level JEL Classification: I31, I32, O11.

 The 2008 crisis, which was the last crisis experienced in the world, affected Turkey negatively as well as all countries. In the post-crisis period, poverty rates in Turkey increased, welfare levels decreased, and economic discontent increased with increases in inflation and unemployment levels. This situation is expressed by the misery index, also known as the discontent index in the economy. The misery index was first proposed by Arthur Okun and later developed by Robert Barro. Barro misery index increases when unemployment, inflation and interest rates increase, and decreases when the growth rate increases. The misery index is also important in terms of showing the level of welfare in a society. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the relationships between Barro misery index and poverty in Turkey between 2006 and 2022. In this context, the relationships between the variables were analyzed with the Toda-Yamamoto causality test in accordance with the results of the unit root tests. According to the results of the causality test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between poverty and Barro misery index. Key Words: Poverty, Misery İndex, Welfare Level JEL Classification: I31, I32, O11.

 Dünyada 2008 krizi tüm ülkeleri etkilediği gibi Türkiyeyi de olumsuz yönde etkilemiştir. Kriz sonrası dönemde Türkiyede yoksulluk oranlarında artış meydana gelmiş, refah düzeyi düşmüş, enflasyon ve işsizlik düzeyindeki artışlarla birlikte ekonomik hoşnutsuzluk artış göstermiştir. Bu durum ekonomide hoşnutsuzluk indeksi olarak da bilinen sefalet indeksi ile ifade edilmektedir. Sefalet indeksi ilk olarak Arthur Okun tarafından öne sürülmüş olup Robert Barro tarafından geliştirilmiştir. Barro sefalet indeksi işsizlik, enflasyon ve faiz oranı arttığında yükselmekte büyüme oranı arttığında ise azalmaktadır. Sefalet indeksi aynı zamanda bir toplumda refah düzeyini göstermesi açısından da önem arz etmektedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmada Türkiyede 2006-2022 yılları arasında Barro sefalet indeksi ile yoksulluk arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler yapılan birim kök testi ve gecikme uzunluğu sonucuna uygun olarak Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre yoksulluk ile Barro sefalet indeksi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Yoksulluk, Sefalet İndeksi, Refah Düzeyi JEL Sınıflandırması: I31, I32, O11.

Article Details

The Relationship Between Barro Misery Index and Poverty in Turkey: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Analysis

Authors:

Yaşar Turna

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri | Kalkınma Ekonomisi - Makro | Refah Ekonomisi

Journal:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.31 Issue 3, pp.623-632

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2024

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001328214

pISSN:

1302-0064

Poverty

Misery

Welfare LevelYoksulluk

Sefalet İndeksi

Refah Düzeyi

Issues

Article Details

The Relationship Between Barro Misery Index and Poverty in Turkey: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Analysis

Authors: Yaşar Turna

Publisher: Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics: Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri | Kalkınma Ekonomisi - Makro | Refah Ekonomisi

Journal: Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.31 Issue 3, pp.623-632

Document Type: Article

Publication Date: 9/2024

Document Language: Turkish

Document ID (Org No.): 2001328214

pISSN: 1302-0064

Poverty

Misery

Welfare LevelYoksulluk

Sefalet İndeksi

Refah Düzeyi

Issues

Authors:

Yaşar Turna

Publisher:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Main Topics:

Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri | Kalkınma Ekonomisi - Makro | Refah Ekonomisi

Journal:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.31 Issue 3, pp.623-632

Document Type:

Article

Publication Date:

9/2024

Document Language:

Turkish

Document ID (Org No.):

2001328214

pISSN:

1302-0064